Heidenheim vs Holstein Kiel Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Voith-Arena
Sun 13 Sep 2026 · 12:30 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.33
Draw
3.92
Away Win
2.87
Match Report
Full Time
1 – 0
Match Events ?
Heidenheim
Holstein Kiel
38'
🟨 Jonas Torrissen Therkelsen
50'
🟥 Jonas Torrissen Therkelsen
Jonas Föhrenbach (Mikkel Kaufmann) ⚽
83'
Mikkel Kaufmann 🟨
86'
Match Statistics ?
51%
Ball Possession
49%
19
Total Shots
13
4
Shots on Goal
2
6
Corner Kicks
8
11
Fouls
12
1
Yellow Cards
0
0
Red Cards
1
4
Offsides
1
3
Goalkeeper Saves
3
Starting Lineups
Heidenheim (4-4-2)
T. Dähne
M. Busch
P. Mainka
J. Föhrenbach
M. Heule
O. Mhamdi
J. Niehues
J. Schöppner
M. Costly
A. Vogt
M. Honsak
Holstein Kiel (4-1-4-1)
T. Weiner
H. Sekine
I. Nekić
D. Zec
Leon Parduzi
J. Meffert
A. Kaprálik
G. Balzi
I. Ugoh
J. Therkelsen
P. Harres
Player Ratings ?
Heidenheim
J. FöhrenbachD8.4
M. KaufmannF7.2
C. ContehF7.1
Holstein Kiel
T. WeinerG7.0
P. HarresF6.9
D. ZecD6.8
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Heidenheim edge recent form, attack and head-to-head, Holstein Kiel edge defence, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Heidenheim stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Heidenheim stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Holstein Kiel slightly stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Heidenheim stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Holstein Kiel have secured two wins and a draw from their last five away fixtures, while Heidenheim boast an unbeaten record with four victories in that same span at home. Heidenheim have scored in four of their last five home matches and kept three clean sheets during that period. Heidenheim rate stronger on form, attack and head-to-head, while Holstein Kiel hold a slight advantage in defence. Heidenheim won the most recent meeting 3-1 on 16 March 2025, having won 2 of the last 5 encounters to Holstein Kiel's 2, with 1 ending level; the fixture has averaged 2.8 goals per meeting. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift away from Heidenheim
Heidenheim's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Heidenheim win as less likely than it did 5 days ago.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Heidenheim win
Latest market chance 41.4%
Strong drift
Market chance decreased
47.6% → 41.4%
−6.2 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 25.2%
Steady
Market view unchanged
24.9% → 25.2%
+0.3 pts
Holstein Kiel win
Latest market chance 33.4%
Strong shortening
Market chance increased
27.5% → 33.4%
+5.9 pts
8 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 5 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
HeidenheimHolstein Kiel
Season Profile
This season
4th
League Position
18th
4
Games Played
4
2.25
Points/Game
0.75
2.75
Goals/Game
1.50
2.50
Conceded/Game
2.00
16.2
Shots/Game
14.8
5.8
Shots on Target
3.8
Home vs Away Context
Heidenheim at home (3 matches) vs Holstein Kiel away (3 matches)
3.00
Points/Game
0.33
3.33
Goals/Game
0.67
2.00
Conceded/Game
1.67
100%
Win Rate
0%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Heidenheim
Home form
W
D
W
W
W
Won 3 straight at home
3 of these matches from last season.
2.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
3/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Holstein Kiel
Away form
W
W
L
D
L
2W 1D 2L in last 5 away
3 of these matches from last season.
1.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Heidenheim Wins
2
Draws
1
Holstein Kiel Wins
2
Avg Goals
2.8
Heidenheim3 – 1Holstein Kiel
Holstein Kiel1 – 0Heidenheim
Heidenheim3 – 0Holstein Kiel
Holstein Kiel3 – 1Heidenheim
Holstein Kiel1 – 1Heidenheim
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Heidenheimvs
Holstein Kiel
Recent Scoring Profile
2.20
Goals scored / game
1.60
1.50
Goals conceded / game
1.40
6/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
7/10
5/10
Both Teams Scored
6/10
1/10
Failed to Score
1/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 61.5%→Latest 63.4%+1.9 pts
Notable move towards 3+ goals
An earlier move in the opposite direction has partly reversed.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 63.2%→Latest 65.6%+2.4 pts
Notable move towards both teams scoring
The market is pricing a higher chance of both teams scoring than either team's recent rate.
6 of Heidenheim's 10 matches and 6 of Holstein Kiel's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?