Bayern Munich vs Union Berlin Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Allianz Arena
Fri 18 Sep 2026 · 19:30 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
1.05
Draw
19.44
Away Win
35.55
Match Report
Full Time
7 – 0
Match Events ?
Bayern Munich
Union Berlin
Jamal Musiala (Alphonso Davies) ⚽
18'
38'
🟨 Felix Uduokhai
Harry Kane ⚽ (P)
39'
42'
🟨 Rani Khedira
Michael Olise (Jamal Musiala) ⚽
43'
Dayot Upamecano 🟨
45+2'
Harry Kane (Michael Olise) ⚽
54'
Ismael Saibari (Alphonso Davies) ⚽
70'
Michael Olise (Tom Bischof) ⚽
73'
Michael Olise (Tom Bischof) ⚽
76'
78'
🟨 Livan Burcu
Match Statistics ?
68%
Ball Possession
32%
23
Total Shots
3
15
Shots on Goal
2
9
Corner Kicks
2
12
Fouls
9
1
Yellow Cards
3
0
Red Cards
0
2
Offsides
2
2
Goalkeeper Saves
6
Starting Lineups
Bayern Munich (4-2-3-1)
M. Neuer
J. Stanišić
D. Upamecano
J. Tah
A. Davies
J. Kimmich
A. Pavlović
M. Olise
J. Musiala
L. Díaz
H. Kane
Union Berlin (4-2-3-1)
F. Rønnow
C. Trimmel
L. Querfeld
F. Uduokhai
T. Rothe
R. Khedira
M. Aebischer
J. Haberer
Jeong Woo-Yeong
A. Schäfer
E. Latte Lath
Player Ratings ?
Bayern Munich
M. OliseM9.6
J. MusialaM8.8
A. DaviesD8.5
Union Berlin
F. RønnowG6.5
M. AebischerM6.5
L. QuerfeldD6.4
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Data favours
Bayern Munich
Bayern Munich rate stronger across every major category. They lead recent form, attack, defence and head-to-head, giving Bayern Munich an edge.
Leads 4 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Bayern Munich stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Bayern Munich stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Bayern Munich stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Bayern Munich stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Union Berlin have managed just a solitary away win in their last five outings, while Bayern Munich remain unbeaten at home with four victories and a draw in that same span. Bayern have scored in all five of their recent home fixtures but have failed to keep a clean sheet in four of those matches. The hosts carry one confirmed absence, whereas Union Berlin will be without six players with another listed as doubtful for the fixture. Bayern Munich rate stronger on form, attack, defence and head-to-head. Bayern Munich won the most recent meeting 4-0 on 21 March 2026, having won 3 of the last 5 encounters to Union Berlin's 0, with 2 ending level; the fixture has averaged 3.8 goals per meeting. Over the 7-day comparison window, Bayern Munich's implied win probability has risen by 7.2 percentage points, while Union Berlin's implied win probability has fallen by 2.9 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison favours Bayern Munich.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift towards Bayern Munich
Bayern Munich's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Bayern Munich win as more likely than it did 7 days ago.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Bayern Munich win
Latest market chance 92.3%
Strong shortening
Market chance increased
85.1% → 92.3%
+7.2 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 5.0%
Strong drift
Market chance decreased
9.3% → 5.0%
−4.3 pts
Union Berlin win
Latest market chance 2.7%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
5.6% → 2.7%
−2.9 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Bayern Munich
Draw
Union Berlin
5 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 7 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
Bayern MunichUnion Berlin
Season Profile
This season
4th
League Position
16th
3
Games Played
3
2.33
Points/Game
0.33
2.33
Goals/Game
1.33
0.67
Conceded/Game
3.33
21.8
Shots/Game
11.8
8.8
Shots on Target
5.0
Home vs Away ContextEarly sample
Bayern Munich at home (2 matches) vs Union Berlin away (2 matches)
3.00
Points/Game
0.00
6.00
Goals/Game
0.00
0.50
Conceded/Game
5.50
100%
Win Rate
0%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Bayern Munich
Home form
W
W
D
W
W
Unbeaten in last 5 at home
4 of these matches from last season.
4.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Union Berlin
Away form
L
L
L
W
L
Lost 4 of last 5 away
4 of these matches from last season.
1.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
3.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Bayern Munich Wins
3
Draws
2
Union Berlin Wins
0
Avg Goals
3.8
Bayern Munich4 – 0Union Berlin
Union Berlin2 – 2Bayern Munich
Union Berlin1 – 1Bayern Munich
Bayern Munich3 – 0Union Berlin
Union Berlin1 – 5Bayern Munich
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Bayern Munichvs
Union Berlin
Recent Scoring Profile
3.20
Goals scored / game
1.70
1.30
Goals conceded / game
2.20
8/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
9/10
7/10
Both Teams Scored
8/10
1/10
Failed to Score
1/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 79.6%→Latest 86.6%+7.0 pts
Strong move towards 3+ goals
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 53.7%→Latest 51.8%−1.9 pts
Notable move away from both teams scoring
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
The market is more cautious on both teams scoring than both teams' recent records.
7 of Bayern Munich's 10 matches and 7 of Union Berlin's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?