Dortmund vs Werder Bremen Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Signal Iduna Park
Fri 09 Oct 2026 · 19:30 UK
Latest Odds
Home Win
1.40
Draw
5.49
Away Win
6.97
Match Prediction
Data favours
Dortmund
Dortmund rate stronger across every major category. They lead recent form, attack, defence and head-to-head, giving Dortmund an edge.
Leads 4 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Dortmund stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Dortmund stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Dortmund stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Dortmund stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Dortmund have enjoyed a strong run at home with four wins from their last five outings, whereas Werder Bremen have struggled on the road with three defeats and two draws in that same away sample. The hosts have found the net in four of their last five home matches but have also kept three clean sheets during that identical five-game period. Dortmund rate stronger on form, attack, defence and head-to-head. Dortmund won the most recent meeting 2-0 on 16 May 2026, having won 3 of the last 5 encounters to Werder Bremen's 0, with 2 ending level; the fixture has averaged 2.4 goals per meeting. Over the 21-day comparison window, Dortmund's implied win probability has risen by 1.5 percentage points, while Werder Bremen's implied win probability has fallen by 0.9 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison favours Dortmund.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
4
Dortmund unbeaten run
50%
Dortmund yellow cards after 75'
2
Werder Bremen points from last 5 matches
Team Availability
Dortmund
No current absences reported
Werder Bremen
No current absences reported
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Notable shift towards Dortmund
Dortmund's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Dortmund win as more likely than it did 21 days ago.
Movement strength: Notable
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Dortmund win
Latest market chance 69.0%
Notable shortening
Market chance increased
67.5% → 69.0%
+1.5 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 17.7%
Steady
Market view unchanged
18.2% → 17.7%
−0.5 pts
Werder Bremen win
Latest market chance 13.3%
Slight drift
Market chance decreased
14.2% → 13.3%
−0.9 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Dortmund
Draw
Werder Bremen
6 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 21 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
DortmundWerder Bremen
Season Profile
This season
1st
League Position
8th
4
Games Played
4
3.00
Points/Game
1.75
2.25
Goals/Game
2.00
0.50
Conceded/Game
2.00
14.5
Shots/Game
13.8
5.0
Shots on Target
6.5
Home vs Away ContextEarly sample
Dortmund at home (2 matches) vs Werder Bremen away (2 matches)
3.00
Points/Game
0.50
2.50
Goals/Game
1.00
0.00
Conceded/Game
2.50
100%
Win Rate
0%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Dortmund
Home form
L
W
W
W
W
Won 4 straight at home
3 of these matches from last season.
2.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
3/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Werder Bremen
Away form
L
D
L
L
D
Winless in last 5 away
3 of these matches from last season.
0.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Dortmund Wins
3
Draws
2
Werder Bremen Wins
0
Avg Goals
2.4
Werder Bremen0 – 2Dortmund
Dortmund3 – 0Werder Bremen
Dortmund2 – 2Werder Bremen
Werder Bremen0 – 0Dortmund
Werder Bremen1 – 2Dortmund
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Dortmundvs
Werder Bremen
Recent Scoring Profile
1.90
Goals scored / game
1.40
0.80
Goals conceded / game
1.90
5/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
6/10
3/10
Both Teams Scored
8/10
2/10
Failed to Score
2/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 67.9%→Latest 68.1%+0.2 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
The market is pricing a higher chance of 3+ goals than either team's recent rate.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 59.8%→Latest 58.7%−1.1 pts
Slight move away from both teams scoring
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
6 of Dortmund's 10 matches and 6 of Werder Bremen's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?