Hoffenheim vs Hamburg Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
SNP Arena
Sat 10 Oct 2026 · 14:30 UK
Latest Odds
Home Win
1.44
Draw
4.90
Away Win
7.09
Match Prediction
Data favours
Hoffenheim
Hoffenheim rate stronger across every major category. They lead recent form, attack, defence and head-to-head, giving Hoffenheim a slight edge.
Leads 4 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Hoffenheim stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Hoffenheim stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Hoffenheim stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Hoffenheim stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Hoffenheim have secured three victories and a draw from their last five home outings, while Hamburg have recorded just one win and a single draw in that same away sample. At this venue, Hoffenheim have scored in five consecutive matches but have kept just one clean sheet during that identical span. Hoffenheim rate stronger on form, attack, defence and head-to-head. Hoffenheim won the most recent meeting 2-1 on 25 April 2026, having won 3 of the last 5 encounters to Hamburg's 2, with 0 ending level; the fixture has averaged 3.2 goals per meeting. Over the 22-day comparison window, Hoffenheim's implied win probability has fallen by 4.8 percentage points, while Hamburg's implied win probability has risen by 3.2 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison gives Hoffenheim a slight edge.
Pre-Match Context
Team Availability
Hoffenheim
No current absences reported
Hamburg
No current absences reported
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift away from Hoffenheim
Hoffenheim's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Hoffenheim win as less likely than it did 22 days ago.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Hoffenheim win
Latest market chance 65.9%
Strong drift
Market chance decreased
70.7% → 65.9%
−4.8 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 19.6%
Notable shortening
Market chance increased
18.0% → 19.6%
+1.6 pts
Hamburg win
Latest market chance 14.5%
Strong shortening
Market chance increased
11.3% → 14.5%
+3.2 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Hoffenheim
Draw
Hamburg
6 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 22 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
HoffenheimHamburg
Season Profile
This season
14th
League Position
16th
4
Games Played
4
0.75
Points/Game
0.75
1.75
Goals/Game
0.50
2.50
Conceded/Game
3.25
19.0
Shots/Game
9.5
5.0
Shots on Target
3.8
Home vs Away ContextEarly sample
Hoffenheim at home (2 matches) vs Hamburg away (2 matches)
1.50
Points/Game
0.00
2.00
Goals/Game
0.00
2.00
Conceded/Game
3.50
50%
Win Rate
0%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Hoffenheim
Home form
W
D
W
L
W
Won 3 of last 5 at home
3 of these matches from last season.
2.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Hamburg
Away form
L
W
D
L
L
Lost 3 of last 5 away
3 of these matches from last season.
0.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Hoffenheim Wins
3
Draws
0
Hamburg Wins
2
Avg Goals
3.2
Hamburg1 – 2Hoffenheim
Hoffenheim4 – 1Hamburg
Hoffenheim2 – 0Hamburg
Hamburg3 – 0Hoffenheim
Hamburg2 – 1Hoffenheim
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Hoffenheimvs
Hamburg
Recent Scoring Profile
1.70
Goals scored / game
1.00
2.10
Goals conceded / game
2.60
9/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
8/10
8/10
Both Teams Scored
6/10
1/10
Failed to Score
4/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 67.9%→Latest 66.9%−1.0 pts
Slight move away from 3+ goals
The market is more cautious on 3+ goals than both teams' recent records.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 56.9%→Latest 59.4%+2.5 pts
Notable move towards both teams scoring
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
6 of Hoffenheim's 10 matches and 6 of Hamburg's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?