Leverkusen vs RB Leipzig Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
BayArena
Sun 20 Sep 2026 · 14:30 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.02
Draw
4.16
Away Win
3.33
Match Report
Full Time
2 – 0
Match Events ?
Leverkusen
RB Leipzig
11'
🟨 Antonio Nusa
Patrik Schick (Miguel Gutiérrez) ⚽
44'
Miguel Gutiérrez ⚽
57'
74'
🟨 Neil El Aynaoui
Edmond Tapsoba 🟨
82'
90+1'
🟨 Benjamin Henrichs
Afonso Moreira 🟨
90+1'
Match Statistics ?
51%
Ball Possession
49%
18
Total Shots
12
6
Shots on Goal
3
9
Corner Kicks
6
14
Fouls
8
2
Yellow Cards
3
0
Red Cards
0
1
Offsides
1
3
Goalkeeper Saves
4
Starting Lineups
Leverkusen (4-2-3-1)
M. Flekken
J. Quansah
E. Tapsoba
F. Medina
Miguel Gutiérrez
Aleix García
E. Fernández
M. Diaby
I. Maza
Afonso Moreira
P. Schick
RB Leipzig (4-2-3-1)
M. Vandevoordt
R. Baku
W. Orbán
M. Estève
D. Raum
E. Banzuzi
N. El Aynaoui
B. Gruda
C. Nkunku
A. Nusa
Rômulo
Player Ratings ?
Leverkusen
Miguel GutiérrezD8.1
P. SchickF7.9
Aleix GarcíaM7.2
RB Leipzig
D. RaumD7.4
W. OrbánD7.0
M. VandevoordtG6.9
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Leverkusen edge attack, defence and head-to-head, RB Leipzig edge recent form, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
RB Leipzig stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Leverkusen stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Leverkusen slightly stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Leverkusen stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Leverkusen have secured three victories and one draw from their last five home outings, while RB Leipzig have suffered three defeats in their corresponding away fixtures over the same span. At home, Leverkusen have found the net in all five of their most recent matches but have managed only a single clean sheet during that identical period. Both sides carry significant selection concerns ahead of kickoff, with Leverkusen having four players unavailable and RB Leipzig also listing four absentees from their respective squads. RB Leipzig rate stronger on form, while Leverkusen rate stronger on attack and head-to-head, with a slight advantage in defence. Leverkusen won the most recent meeting 4-1 on 2 May 2026, having won 3 of the last 5 encounters to RB Leipzig's 1, with 1 ending level; the fixture has averaged 4.6 goals per meeting. Over the 9-day comparison window, Leverkusen's implied win probability has fallen by 2.5 percentage points, while RB Leipzig's implied win probability has risen by 2.5 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Notable shift away from Leverkusen
Leverkusen's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Leverkusen win as less likely than it did 9 days ago.
Movement strength: Notable
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Leverkusen win
Latest market chance 48.0%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
50.5% → 48.0%
−2.5 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 23.1%
Steady
Market view unchanged
23.1% → 23.1%
±0.0 pts
RB Leipzig win
Latest market chance 29.0%
Notable shortening
Market chance increased
26.5% → 29.0%
+2.5 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Leverkusen
Draw
RB Leipzig
5 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 9 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
LeverkusenRB Leipzig

Season Profile
This season
10th
League Position
7th
3
Games Played
3
1.33
Points/Game
2.00
2.67
Goals/Game
3.00
1.67
Conceded/Game
1.00
22.5
Shots/Game
18.8
6.2
Shots on Target
6.2
Home vs Away ContextEarly sample
Leverkusen at home (2 matches) vs RB Leipzig away (2 matches)
3.00
Points/Game
0.00
3.00
Goals/Game
0.50
0.00
Conceded/Game
2.50
100%
Win Rate
0%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches

Leverkusen
Home form
W
L
W
D
W
Won 3 of last 5 at home
4 of these matches from last season.
3.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS

RB Leipzig
Away form
W
W
L
L
L
Lost 3 straight away
4 of these matches from last season.
1.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Leverkusen Wins
3
Draws
1
RB Leipzig Wins
1
Avg Goals
4.6
Leverkusen4 – 1RB Leipzig
RB Leipzig1 – 3Leverkusen
RB Leipzig2 – 2Leverkusen
Leverkusen2 – 3RB Leipzig
RB Leipzig2 – 3Leverkusen
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Leverkusenvs
RB Leipzig

Recent Scoring Profile
2.40
Goals scored / game
2.20
1.60
Goals conceded / game
1.50
8/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
9/10
8/10
Both Teams Scored
7/10
0/10
Failed to Score
0/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 68.7%→Latest 70.1%+1.4 pts
Slight move towards 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
The market is more cautious on 3+ goals than both teams' recent records.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 68.2%→Latest 69.8%+1.6 pts
Notable move towards both teams scoring
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
7 of Leverkusen's 10 matches and 7 of RB Leipzig's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?