Leverkusen vs Union Berlin Head to Head, Prediction
BayArena
Sat 05 Sep 2026 · 14:30 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
1.48
Draw
5.06
Away Win
6.01
Match Report
Full Time
4 – 0
Match Events ?
Leverkusen
Union Berlin
E. Fernandez (M. Gutierrez) ⚽
1'
4'
🟨 Felix Uduokhai
F. Medina (M. Gutierrez) ⚽
28'
47'
🟨 Zeno Van Den Bosch
P. Schick (J. Quansah) ⚽
48'
Miguel Gutiérrez 🟨
61'
I. Maza (P. Schick) ⚽
66'
Ibrahim Maza 🟨
88'
Match Statistics ?
64%
Ball Possession
36%
21
Total Shots
5
10
Shots on Goal
0
11
Corner Kicks
1
11
Fouls
12
2
Yellow Cards
2
3
Offsides
3
0
Goalkeeper Saves
6
Starting Lineups
Leverkusen (4-2-3-1)
M. Flekken
J. Quansah
E. Tapsoba
F. Medina
M. Gutierrez
A. Garcia
E. Fernandez
A. Moreira
M. Tillman
I. Maza
P. Schick
Union Berlin (4-3-1-2)
F. Ronnow
J. Juranovic
Z. Van Den Bosch
F. Uduokhai
T. Rothe
M. Aebischer
A. Kemlein
L. Burcu
R. Khedira
E. Latte Lath
M. Ljubicic
Player Ratings ?
Leverkusen
Ibrahim MazaM9.3
Miguel GutiérrezD9.0
Aleix GarcíaM8.5
Union Berlin
Felix UduokhaiD6.9
Aljoscha KemleinM6.9
Livan BurcuM6.9
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Leverkusen edge recent form, attack and head-to-head, defence is closely matched, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Leverkusen slightly stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Leverkusen stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Closely matched
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Leverkusen stronger
HomeAway
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Notable shift towards Leverkusen
Leverkusen's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Leverkusen win as more likely than it did 6 days ago.
Movement strength: Notable
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Leverkusen win
Latest market chance 65.2%
Notable shortening
Market chance increased
63.2% → 65.2%
+2.0 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 19.6%
Steady
Market view unchanged
20.2% → 19.6%
−0.6 pts
Union Berlin win
Latest market chance 15.2%
Slight drift
Market chance decreased
16.5% → 15.2%
−1.3 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Leverkusen
Draw
Union Berlin
6 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 6 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
LeverkusenUnion Berlin
Season Profile
This season
14th
League Position
10th
1
Games Played
1
0.00
Points/Game
1.00
2.00
Goals/Game
3.00
3.00
Conceded/Game
3.00
22.5
Shots/Game
11.8
6.2
Shots on Target
5.0
Home vs Away ContextEarly sample
Leverkusen at home (2 matches) vs Union Berlin away (2 matches)
3.00
Points/Game
0.00
3.00
Goals/Game
0.00
0.00
Conceded/Game
5.50
100%
Win Rate
0%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Leverkusen
Home form
D
W
L
W
D
2W 2D 1L in last 5 at home
5 of these matches from last season.
2.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Union Berlin
Away form
W
L
L
L
W
Lost 3 of last 5 away
5 of these matches from last season.
1.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Leverkusen Wins
3
Draws
1
Union Berlin Wins
1
Avg Goals
1.4
Union Berlin1 – 0Leverkusen
Leverkusen2 – 0Union Berlin
Leverkusen0 – 0Union Berlin
Union Berlin1 – 2Leverkusen
Union Berlin0 – 1Leverkusen
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Leverkusenvs
Union Berlin
Recent Scoring Profile
2.20
Goals scored / game
1.70
1.80
Goals conceded / game
1.90
7/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
8/10
9/10
Both Teams Scored
7/10
0/10
Failed to Score
1/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 5 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 64.8%→Latest 65.9%+1.1 pts
Slight move towards 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 59.9%→Latest 60.1%+0.2 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
The market is more cautious on both teams scoring than both teams' recent records.
9 of Leverkusen's 10 matches and 9 of Union Berlin's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?