Mainz vs Leverkusen Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Mewa Arena
Sat 10 Oct 2026 · 14:30 UK
Latest Odds
Home Win
3.00
Draw
3.99
Away Win
2.22
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Leverkusen edge recent form and head-to-head, attack and defence are closely matched, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Leverkusen slightly stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Closely matched
HomeAway
Defence
Closely matched
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Leverkusen stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Leverkusen have secured two victories and a draw in their away fixtures over the last five outings, while Mainz remain winless at home during that same span with just one draw to show for four defeats. Mainz have found the net in three of their last five home matches, yet they have managed only a single clean sheet within that identical recent sample. Leverkusen rate stronger on head-to-head, with a slight advantage in form, while attack and defence are closely matched. The most recent meeting, on 28 February 2026, ended level, with 2 of the last 5 encounters drawn overall; the fixture has averaged 3.4 goals per meeting. Over the 22-day comparison window, Mainz's implied win probability has fallen by 1.9 percentage points, while Leverkusen's implied win probability has risen by 2.3 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
3/5
One-goal H2H results
56%
Mainz yellow cards after 75'
1
Mainz points from last 5 matches
Team Availability
Mainz
No current absences reported
Leverkusen
No current absences reported
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Notable shift towards Leverkusen
Leverkusen's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Leverkusen win as more likely than it did 22 days ago.
Movement strength: Notable
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Mainz win
Latest market chance 32.7%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
34.6% → 32.7%
−1.9 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 24.7%
Steady
Market view unchanged
25.2% → 24.7%
−0.5 pts
Leverkusen win
Latest market chance 42.6%
Notable shortening
Market chance increased
40.3% → 42.6%
+2.3 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Mainz
Draw
Leverkusen
6 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 22 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
MainzLeverkusen
Season Profile
This season
6th
League Position
5th
4
Games Played
4
1.75
Points/Game
1.75
2.50
Goals/Game
2.50
1.50
Conceded/Game
1.25
18.2
Shots/Game
22.5
6.2
Shots on Target
6.2
Home vs Away ContextEarly sample
Mainz at home (2 matches) vs Leverkusen away (2 matches)
0.50
Points/Game
0.50
0.50
Goals/Game
2.00
1.50
Conceded/Game
2.50
0%
Win Rate
0%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Mainz
Home form
L
L
L
D
L
Winless in last 5 at home
3 of these matches from last season.
1.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Leverkusen
Away form
W
W
L
L
D
2W 1D 2L in last 5 away
3 of these matches from last season.
1.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Mainz Wins
0
Draws
2
Leverkusen Wins
3
Avg Goals
3.4
Leverkusen1 – 1Mainz
Mainz3 – 4Leverkusen
Mainz2 – 2Leverkusen
Leverkusen1 – 0Mainz
Leverkusen2 – 1Mainz
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Mainzvs
Leverkusen
Recent Scoring Profile
1.90
Goals scored / game
2.00
1.60
Goals conceded / game
1.30
6/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
7/10
6/10
Both Teams Scored
7/10
2/10
Failed to Score
0/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 63.8%→Latest 65.3%+1.5 pts
Notable move towards 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 66.3%→Latest 66.6%+0.3 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
6 of Mainz's 10 matches and 6 of Leverkusen's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
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