RB Leipzig vs Hamburg Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Red Bull Arena
Sun 13 Sep 2026 · 14:30 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
1.33
Draw
6.10
Away Win
7.98
Match Report
Full Time
5 – 0
Match Events ?
RB Leipzig
Hamburg
6'
🟨 Nicolás Capaldo
Tidiam Gomis (Ezechiel Banzuzi) ⚽
17'
Antonio Nusa ⚽
28'
Castello Junior Lukeba 🟨
48'
71'
🟨 Shafiq Nandja
Willi Orbán (Antonio Nusa) ⚽
72'
Christopher Nkunku (Antonio Nusa) ⚽
74'
Rômulo José Cardoso da Cruz ⚽
77'
Match Statistics ?
64%
Ball Possession
36%
19
Total Shots
10
6
Shots on Goal
4
8
Corner Kicks
7
11
Fouls
13
1
Yellow Cards
2
0
Red Cards
0
0
Offsides
3
4
Goalkeeper Saves
1
Starting Lineups
RB Leipzig (4-3-3)
M. Vandevoordt
B. Henrichs
W. Orbán
C. Lukeba
D. Raum
E. Banzuzi
N. El Aynaoui
A. Ouédraogo
B. Gruda
T. Gomis
A. Nusa
Hamburg (3-4-2-1)
Daniel Heuer Fernandes
S. Nandja
J. Torunarigha
N. Capaldo
Z. El Ouahdi
A. Sambi Lokonga
N. Remberg
D. Møller Wolfe
P. Daka
A. Grønbæk
Y. Poulsen
Player Ratings ?
RB Leipzig
A. NusaF9.0
T. GomisF8.8
C. NkunkuF8.1
Hamburg
T. MoffiF6.7
A. GrønbækM6.5
N. RembergM6.4
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Data favours
RB Leipzig
RB Leipzig rate stronger across every major category. They lead recent form, attack, defence and head-to-head, giving RB Leipzig an edge.
Leads 4 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
RB Leipzig stronger
HomeAway
Attack
RB Leipzig stronger
HomeAway
Defence
RB Leipzig stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
RB Leipzig stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
RB Leipzig have secured five straight victories in their last five home fixtures, while Hamburg have recorded just a solitary win and a draw across their corresponding away sample. The hosts have scored in every one of their last five home matches and have also kept three clean sheets during that same span. Both squads carry injury concerns, with two players unavailable for RB Leipzig and three missing from the Hamburg side before kickoff. RB Leipzig rate stronger on form, attack, defence and head-to-head. RB Leipzig won the most recent meeting 2-1 on 1 March 2026, having won 3 of the last 5 encounters to Hamburg's 1, with 1 ending level; the fixture has averaged 2.6 goals per meeting. Over the 9-day comparison window, RB Leipzig's implied win probability has risen by 1.8 percentage points, while Hamburg's implied win probability has fallen by 0.6 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison favours RB Leipzig.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Notable shift towards RB Leipzig
RB Leipzig's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a RB Leipzig win as more likely than it did 9 days ago.
Movement strength: Notable
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
RB Leipzig win
Latest market chance 71.6%
Notable shortening
Market chance increased
69.8% → 71.6%
+1.8 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 16.7%
Slight drift
Market chance decreased
17.9% → 16.7%
−1.2 pts
Hamburg win
Latest market chance 11.8%
Steady
Market view unchanged
12.4% → 11.8%
−0.6 pts
5 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 9 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
RB LeipzigHamburg
Season Profile
This season
12th
League Position
17th
2
Games Played
2
1.50
Points/Game
0.00
2.00
Goals/Game
0.00
1.50
Conceded/Game
3.50
18.8
Shots/Game
9.5
6.2
Shots on Target
3.8
Home vs Away ContextEarly sample
RB Leipzig at home (2 matches) vs Hamburg away (2 matches)
3.00
Points/Game
0.00
4.00
Goals/Game
0.00
0.00
Conceded/Game
3.50
100%
Win Rate
0%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
RB Leipzig
Home form
W
W
W
W
W
Won 5 straight at home
4 of these matches from last season.
2.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
3/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Hamburg
Away form
L
L
W
D
L
Lost 3 of last 5 away
4 of these matches from last season.
0.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
RB Leipzig Wins
3
Draws
1
Hamburg Wins
1
Avg Goals
2.6
Hamburg1 – 2RB Leipzig
RB Leipzig2 – 1Hamburg
RB Leipzig1 – 1Hamburg
Hamburg0 – 2RB Leipzig
RB Leipzig0 – 3Hamburg
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
RB Leipzigvs
Hamburg
Recent Scoring Profile
2.20
Goals scored / game
1.10
1.50
Goals conceded / game
2.40
9/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
7/10
7/10
Both Teams Scored
7/10
0/10
Failed to Score
3/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 65.7%→Latest 71.8%+6.1 pts
Strong move towards 3+ goals
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 56.2%→Latest 61.0%+4.8 pts
Strong move towards both teams scoring
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
The market is more cautious on both teams scoring than both teams' recent records.
8 of RB Leipzig's 10 matches and 8 of Hamburg's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?