Blackburn vs Cardiff Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis

Ewood Park
Sat 10 Oct 2026 · 15:00 UK
Latest Odds
Home Win
2.71
Draw
3.61
Away Win
2.48
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Blackburn edge recent form, defence and head-to-head, attack is closely matched, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Blackburn stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Closely matched
HomeAway
Defence
Blackburn slightly stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Blackburn stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Cardiff have struggled to find a winning formula away from home, managing just a solitary draw in their last five outings across seasons, while Blackburn have secured two victories in the same number of matches at home during this period. Blackburn have found the net in four of their last five home matches, yet they have failed to keep a clean sheet in that same sample size. Blackburn rate stronger on form and head-to-head, with a slight advantage in defence, while attack is closely matched. Cardiff won the most recent meeting 2-1 on 15 March 2025, having won 1 of the last 5 encounters to Blackburn's 3, with 1 ending level; the fixture has averaged 1.8 goals per meeting. Over the 20-day comparison window, Blackburn's implied win probability has fallen by 3.9 percentage points, while Cardiff's implied win probability has risen by 3.6 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
3/5
One-goal H2H results
1
Cardiff points from last 5 matches
Team Availability
Blackburn
No current absences reported
Cardiff
No current absences reported
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Market View
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How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift away from Blackburn
Blackburn's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Blackburn win as less likely than it did 20 days ago. Cardiff remain the clear market favourite.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Blackburn win
Latest market chance 35.5%
Strong drift
Market chance decreased
39.4% → 35.5%
−3.9 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 26.6%
Steady
Market view unchanged
26.3% → 26.6%
+0.3 pts
Cardiff win
Latest market chance 37.9%
Strong shortening
Market chance increased
34.3% → 37.9%
+3.6 pts
Movement over time
Change vs first comparable snapshot
16 snapshots
+4+20−2Sep 20Sep 21Sep 22Sep 23Sep 24Sep 25Sep 26Sep 27Sep 28Sep 29Sep 30Oct 1Oct 2Oct 3Oct 4Oct 5
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Blackburn
Draw
Cardiff
5 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 20 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
Blackburn
Cardiff
Season Profile
This season
16th
League Position
21st
8
Games Played
8
1.13
Points/Game
0.88
1.50
Goals/Game
1.25
1.50
Conceded/Game
1.50
11.6
Shots/Game
18.8
4.1
Shots on Target
6.6
Home vs Away Context
Blackburn at home (4 matches) vs Cardiff away (4 matches)
1.50
Points/Game
0.25
1.75
Goals/Game
0.75
1.50
Conceded/Game
1.75
50%
Win Rate
0%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Blackburn
Home form
L
W
L
L
W
Lost 3 of last 5 at home
1 of these match from last season.
1.4
Goals scored
per match
1.4
Goals conceded
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
VS
Cardiff
Away form
L
D
L
L
L
Lost 3 straight away
1 of these match from last season.
1.0
Goals scored
per match
2.2
Goals conceded
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Blackburn Wins
3
Draws
1
Cardiff Wins
1
Avg Goals
1.8
2025-03-152024-2025
Blackburn1 – 2Cardiff
2024-11-092024-2025
Cardiff1 – 3Blackburn
2024-02-202023-2024
Cardiff0 – 0Blackburn
2023-10-212023-2024
Blackburn1 – 0Cardiff
2023-01-012022-2023
Blackburn1 – 0Cardiff
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Blackburn
vs
Cardiff
Recent Scoring Profile
1.50
Goals scored / game
1.20
1.40
Goals conceded / game
1.60
8/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
5/10
8/10
Both Teams Scored
7/10
2/10
Failed to Score
3/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
78.8%
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
58.2%
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
37.7%
BTTSBoth teams score
61.9%
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 57.0%→Latest 58.4%+1.4 pts
Slight move towards 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Sep 20Sep 21Sep 22Sep 23Sep 24Sep 25Sep 26Sep 27Sep 28Sep 29Sep 30Oct 1Oct 2Oct 3Oct 4Oct 5
4 common bookmakers · first comparable 20 days before kickoff
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 60.7%→Latest 61.4%+0.7 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
4 common bookmakers · first comparable 20 days before kickoff
The market is more cautious on both teams scoring than both teams' recent records.
2 of Blackburn's 10 matches and 2 of Cardiff's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
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