Blackburn vs Millwall Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Ewood Park
Sat 12 Sep 2026 · 15:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.84
Draw
3.45
Away Win
2.52
Match Report
Full Time
3 – 1
Match Events ?
Blackburn
Millwall
Hayden Carter 🟨
13'
Sam Morsy 🟨
38'
Oladapo Afolayan (Sam Morsy) ⚽
41'
Harry Pickering 🟨
45'
45+4'
🟨 Zak Sturge
Gady Beyuku 🟨
50'
51'
⚽ (P) Lyndon Dykes
Oladapo Afolayan (Tom Atcheson) ⚽
58'
81'
🟨 Jenson Metcalfe
J. Fevrier 🟨
86'
90+2'
🟨 Mark Sykes
Andri Guðjohnsen (J. Fevrier) ⚽
90+3'
Match Statistics ?
45%
Ball Possession
55%
18
Total Shots
16
4
Shots on Goal
2
6
Corner Kicks
3
9
Fouls
15
5
Yellow Cards
3
0
Red Cards
0
1
Offsides
2
1
Goalkeeper Saves
1
Starting Lineups
Blackburn (5-4-1)
B. Tóth
H. Carter
Tom Atcheson
S. McLoughlin
Yuri Ribeiro
Kristi Montgomery
Sam Morsy
R. Alebiosu
T. Cantwell
R. Morishita
O. Afolayan
Millwall (4-2-3-1)
M. Crocombe
J. Osei-Tutu
C. Taylor
J. Cooper
Zak Norton Sturge
D. Mazou-Sacko
Jenson Metcalfe
R. Esse
T. Arconte
C. Neghli
L. Dykes
Player Ratings ?
Blackburn
O. AfolayanF8.7
A. GuðjohnsenF7.5
Sam MorsyM7.4
Millwall
L. DykesF7.0
M. SykesM6.7
J. CooperD6.5
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Blackburn edge head-to-head, Millwall edge recent form, attack and defence, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Millwall stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Millwall stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Millwall stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Blackburn stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Millwall have secured two victories in their last five away outings, while Blackburn have managed just one win from their corresponding home fixtures over the same span. Blackburn have found the net in three of their last five home matches but have kept just one clean sheet during that identical period. The hosts face six confirmed absences alongside two players listed as doubtful ahead of this fixture. Millwall rate stronger on form, attack and defence, while Blackburn rate stronger on head-to-head. Blackburn won the most recent meeting 2-1 on 14 March 2026, having won 3 of the last 5 encounters to Millwall's 1, with 1 ending level; the fixture has averaged 2.6 goals per meeting. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Slight shift towards Blackburn
Blackburn's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Blackburn win as more likely than it did 4 days ago. This is a modest move, not a major change in market opinion. Millwall remain the clear market favourite.
Movement strength: Slight
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Blackburn win
Latest market chance 33.5%
Slight shortening
Market chance increased
32.4% → 33.5%
+1.1 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 28.4%
Steady
Market view unchanged
28.4% → 28.4%
±0.0 pts
Millwall win
Latest market chance 38.0%
Slight drift
Market chance decreased
39.1% → 38.0%
−1.1 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Blackburn
Draw
Millwall
7 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 4 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
BlackburnMillwall
Season Profile
This season
18th
League Position
9th
6
Games Played
5
0.83
Points/Game
1.80
1.17
Goals/Game
2.00
1.50
Conceded/Game
1.60
11.6
Shots/Game
15.0
4.1
Shots on Target
4.1
Home vs Away Context
Blackburn at home (4 matches) vs Millwall away (4 matches)
1.50
Points/Game
1.00
1.75
Goals/Game
1.50
1.50
Conceded/Game
2.50
50%
Win Rate
25%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Blackburn
Home form
D
L
W
L
L
Lost 3 of last 5 at home
2 of these matches from last season.
1.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Millwall
Away form
W
D
D
W
L
2W 2D 1L in last 5 away
3 of these matches from last season.
1.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Blackburn Wins
3
Draws
1
Millwall Wins
1
Avg Goals
2.6
Millwall1 – 2Blackburn
Blackburn2 – 0Millwall
Blackburn4 – 1Millwall
Millwall1 – 0Blackburn
Blackburn1 – 1Millwall
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Blackburnvs
Millwall
Recent Scoring Profile
1.10
Goals scored / game
1.60
1.50
Goals conceded / game
1.20
7/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
5/10
7/10
Both Teams Scored
3/10
3/10
Failed to Score
3/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 47.6%→Latest 50.0%+2.4 pts
Notable move towards 3+ goals
An earlier move in the opposite direction has partly reversed.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 53.6%→Latest 55.3%+1.7 pts
Notable move towards both teams scoring
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
4 of Blackburn's 10 matches and 5 of Millwall's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?