Bolton vs Cardiff Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Toughsheet Community Stadium
Sat 12 Sep 2026 · 12:30 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.69
Draw
3.73
Away Win
2.51
Match Report
Full Time
1 – 0
Match Events ?
Bolton
Cardiff
Ben Davies 🟨
31'
Kyliane Dong 🟨
32'
Samuel Iling 🟨
37'
42'
🟨 Joel Colwill
54'
🟨 Perry Tian Hee Ng
Jayden Nelson 🟨
78'
Thierry Gale (Thelonius Bair) ⚽
90'
Thierry Gale 🟨
90+1'
Match Statistics ?
41%
Ball Possession
59%
7
Total Shots
17
5
Shots on Goal
10
2
Corner Kicks
10
16
Fouls
13
5
Yellow Cards
2
0
Red Cards
0
3
Offsides
7
10
Goalkeeper Saves
4
Starting Lineups
Bolton (4-2-3-1)
G. Bazunu
Gaizka Larrazabal
E. Toal
B. Davies
M. Conway
J. Sheehan
E. Erhahon
S. Iling-Junior
Ruben Rodrigues
K. Dong
S. Dalby
Cardiff (4-2-3-1)
N. Trott
P. Ng
K. Bielik
G. Osho
J. Bagan
A. Robertson
J. Colwill
O. Tanner
J. Moylan
C. Willock
Y. Salech
Player Ratings ?
Bolton
G. BazunuG8.9
T. GaleF7.6
E. ToalD7.2
Cardiff
N. TrottG7.6
J. BaganD7.4
C. WillockM6.9
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Cardiff edge recent form, attack and head-to-head, defence is closely matched, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Cardiff stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Cardiff stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Closely matched
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Cardiff stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Cardiff have recorded just one draw from their last five away outings, while Bolton have won only a single home match in that same span. Bolton have scored in just one of their last five home matches and have failed to keep a clean sheet during that period. There are two unavailable players for Bolton and three missing from Cardiff's squad ahead of the fixture. Cardiff rate stronger on attack and head-to-head, with a slight advantage in form, while Bolton hold a slight advantage in defence. Cardiff won the most recent meeting 2-0 on 11 April 2026, having won 3 of the last 5 encounters to Bolton's 2, with 0 ending level; the fixture has averaged 2.0 goals per meeting. The market has remained broadly steady over the 5-day comparison window, with little change in either side's implied win probability. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Little change in the market
The betting market's view of this match has barely moved since the earliest comparable snapshot, 5 days before kickoff.
Movement strength: Steady
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Bolton win
Latest market chance 35.5%
Steady
Market view unchanged
35.1% → 35.5%
+0.4 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 26.3%
Steady
Market view unchanged
26.5% → 26.3%
−0.2 pts
Cardiff win
Latest market chance 38.2%
Steady
Market view unchanged
38.4% → 38.2%
−0.2 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Bolton
Draw
Cardiff
7 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 5 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
BoltonCardiff
Season Profile
This season
21st
League Position
20th
6
Games Played
6
0.67
Points/Game
0.67
1.00
Goals/Game
1.17
2.00
Conceded/Game
1.67
12.2
Shots/Game
18.8
4.8
Shots on Target
6.6
Home vs Away Context
Bolton at home (4 matches) vs Cardiff away (4 matches)
1.50
Points/Game
0.25
1.25
Goals/Game
0.75
1.25
Conceded/Game
1.75
50%
Win Rate
0%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Bolton
Home form
L
L
W
L
L
Lost 4 of last 5 at home
2 of these matches from last season.
0.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
2/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Cardiff
Away form
L
L
D
L
L
Winless in last 5 away
2 of these matches from last season.
1.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Bolton Wins
2
Draws
0
Cardiff Wins
3
Avg Goals
2.0
Cardiff2 – 0Bolton
Bolton1 – 0Cardiff
Cardiff2 – 0Bolton
Bolton2 – 0Cardiff
Cardiff2 – 1Bolton
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Boltonvs
Cardiff
Recent Scoring Profile
0.60
Goals scored / game
1.00
1.80
Goals conceded / game
1.70
4/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
4/10
3/10
Both Teams Scored
7/10
7/10
Failed to Score
3/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 56.8%→Latest 60.3%+3.5 pts
Strong move towards 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
The market is pricing a higher chance of 3+ goals than either team's recent rate.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 60.9%→Latest 63.6%+2.7 pts
Notable move towards both teams scoring
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
4 of Bolton's 10 matches and 4 of Cardiff's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?