Cardiff vs Stoke Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Cardiff City Stadium
Tue 08 Sep 2026 · 19:45 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.08
Draw
3.79
Away Win
3.46
Match Report
Full Time
1 – 1
Match Events ?
Cardiff
Stoke
22'
⚽ Ben Johnson (Róbert Boženík)
27'
🟨 Ben Wilmot
Perry Tian Hee Ng 🟨
45+2'
Joel Colwill (Christopher Willock) ⚽
63'
81'
🟨 Luke Graham
Match Statistics ?
71%
Ball Possession
29%
26
Total Shots
12
7
Shots on Goal
4
7
Corner Kicks
5
5
Fouls
19
1
Yellow Cards
2
0
Red Cards
0
2
Offsides
4
3
Goalkeeper Saves
6
Starting Lineups
Cardiff (4-2-3-1)
N. Trott
P. Ng
K. Bielik
G. Osho
J. Bagan
A. Robertson
J. Colwill
O. Tanner
J. Moylan
C. Willock
Y. Salech
Stoke (3-5-2)
V. Johansson
B. Wilmot
M. Talovierov
L. Graham
B. Johnson
J. Devenny
El Hadji Djibril Soumaré
E. Galbraith
L. Bombino
G. Hirst
R. Boženík
Player Ratings ?
Cardiff
J. ColwillM8.1
C. WillockM7.7
K. BielikD7.3
Stoke
B. JohnsonM7.6
V. JohanssonG7.5
R. BoženíkF7.2
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Cardiff edge attack and defence, Stoke edge recent form and head-to-head, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Stoke stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Cardiff stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Cardiff slightly stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Stoke stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Stoke arrive with a poor away record of five straight defeats, while Cardiff have drawn four of their last five home outings. The Bluebirds have scored in three of their last five matches at the ground but have only kept one clean sheet during that same period. Cardiff face no doubts with zero doubtful players, whereas Stoke have three doubtful options alongside two confirmed absences. Stoke rate stronger on form and head-to-head, while Cardiff rate stronger on attack, with a slight advantage in defence. Stoke won the most recent meeting 1-0 on 12 April 2025, having won 1 of the last 5 encounters to Cardiff's 1, with 3 ending level; the fixture has averaged 2.0 goals per meeting. The market has remained broadly steady over the 1-day comparison window, with little change in either side's implied win probability. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
3
Stoke losing run
0
Stoke points from last 5 matches
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Notable shift towards Cardiff
Cardiff's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Cardiff win as more likely than it did 1 day ago.
Movement strength: Notable
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Cardiff win
Latest market chance 46.3%
Notable shortening
Market chance increased
44.0% → 46.3%
+2.3 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 25.6%
Steady
Market view unchanged
26.0% → 25.6%
−0.4 pts
Stoke win
Latest market chance 28.1%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
30.0% → 28.1%
−1.9 pts
13 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 1 day before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
CardiffStoke
Season Profile
This season
22nd
League Position
14th
5
Games Played
5
0.60
Points/Game
1.20
1.20
Goals/Game
1.60
1.80
Conceded/Game
1.80
18.8
Shots/Game
12.0
6.6
Shots on Target
4.0
Home vs Away Context
Cardiff at home (4 matches) vs Stoke away (4 matches)
1.50
Points/Game
1.00
1.75
Goals/Game
1.25
1.25
Conceded/Game
2.25
25%
Win Rate
25%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Cardiff
Home form
L
D
D
D
D
Winless in last 5 at home
3 of these matches from last season.
0.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Stoke
Away form
L
L
L
L
L
Lost 5 straight away
3 of these matches from last season.
0.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
2/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Cardiff Wins
1
Draws
3
Stoke Wins
1
Avg Goals
2.0
Cardiff0 – 1Stoke
Stoke2 – 2Cardiff
Cardiff2 – 1Stoke
Stoke0 – 0Cardiff
Cardiff1 – 1Stoke
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Cardiffvs
Stoke
Recent Scoring Profile
0.90
Goals scored / game
1.10
1.70
Goals conceded / game
2.00
4/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
6/10
6/10
Both Teams Scored
6/10
4/10
Failed to Score
2/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 11 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 59.6%→Latest 58.6%−1.0 pts
Slight move away from 3+ goals
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 62.2%→Latest 60.9%−1.3 pts
Slight move away from both teams scoring
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
5 of Cardiff's 10 matches and 5 of Stoke's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?