Derby vs Wrexham Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Pride Park
Sat 10 Oct 2026 · 15:00 UK
Latest Odds
Home Win
2.73
Draw
3.41
Away Win
2.56
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Wrexham edge recent form, defence and head-to-head, attack is closely matched, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Wrexham stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Closely matched
HomeAway
Defence
Wrexham slightly stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Wrexham stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Derby have struggled at home with just one draw from their last five outings, while Wrexham are slightly more positive away from home with one win and two draws in the same span. Derby have scored in three of their last five matches at home but have conceded in every single game during that period. Wrexham rate stronger on form and head-to-head, with a slight advantage in defence, while attack is closely matched. Wrexham won the most recent meeting 2-1 on 4 January 2026, having won 1 of the last 2 encounters to Derby's 0, with 1 ending level; the fixture has averaged 2.5 goals per meeting. Over the 20-day comparison window, Derby's implied win probability has risen by 3.4 percentage points, while Wrexham's implied win probability has fallen by 3.0 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
3
Derby losing run
50%
Derby yellow cards after 75'
1
Derby points from last 5 matches
Team Availability
Derby
No current absences reported
Wrexham
No current absences reported
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift towards Derby
Derby's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Derby win as more likely than it did 20 days ago. Wrexham remain the clear market favourite.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Derby win
Latest market chance 35.1%
Strong shortening
Market chance increased
31.7% → 35.1%
+3.4 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 28.6%
Steady
Market view unchanged
28.9% → 28.6%
−0.3 pts
Wrexham win
Latest market chance 36.3%
Strong drift
Market chance decreased
39.3% → 36.3%
−3.0 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Derby
Draw
Wrexham
5 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 20 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
DerbyWrexham
Season Profile
This season
22nd
League Position
14th
8
Games Played
8
0.63
Points/Game
1.25
0.88
Goals/Game
1.12
1.75
Conceded/Game
1.50
12.2
Shots/Game
10.9
3.6
Shots on Target
3.5
Home vs Away Context
Derby at home (4 matches) vs Wrexham away (4 matches)
0.25
Points/Game
1.25
0.75
Goals/Game
1.00
2.00
Conceded/Game
1.75
0%
Win Rate
25%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Derby
Home form
L
D
L
L
L
Lost 3 straight at home
1 of these match from last season.
0.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Wrexham
Away form
L
D
W
D
L
1W 2D 2L in last 5 away
1 of these match from last season.
1.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Derby Wins
0
Draws
1
Wrexham Wins
1
Avg Goals
2.5
Derby1 – 2Wrexham
Wrexham1 – 1Derby
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Derbyvs
Wrexham
Recent Scoring Profile
1.10
Goals scored / game
1.20
1.80
Goals conceded / game
1.70
7/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
6/10
6/10
Both Teams Scored
7/10
3/10
Failed to Score
2/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 47.1%→Latest 47.1%±0.0 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
The market is more cautious on 3+ goals than both teams' recent records.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 51.9%→Latest 51.9%±0.0 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
The market is more cautious on both teams scoring than both teams' recent records.
2 of Derby's 10 matches and 2 of Wrexham's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?