Middlesbrough vs Millwall Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Riverside Stadium
Tue 15 Sep 2026 · 19:45 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
1.56
Draw
4.58
Away Win
5.49
Match Report
Full Time
2 – 2
Match Events ?
Middlesbrough
Millwall
11'
⚽ Taïryk Arconte (Camiel Neghli)
36'
⚽ Lyndon Dykes (Caleb Taylor)
Amario Cozier-Duberry ⚽
50'
59'
🟨 Derek Mazou Sacko
will lankshear (Luke Ayling) ⚽
61'
Riley McGree 🟨
66'
Match Statistics ?
80%
Ball Possession
20%
22
Total Shots
11
7
Shots on Goal
4
14
Corner Kicks
1
3
Fouls
12
1
Yellow Cards
1
0
Red Cards
0
4
Offsides
3
2
Goalkeeper Saves
5
Starting Lineups
Middlesbrough (4-2-3-1)
R. Vítek
C. Brittain
L. Ayling
A. Phillips
Neto Borges
A. Morris
S. Berhalter
A. Cozier-Duberry
R. McGree
T. Conway
W. Lankshear
Millwall (4-2-3-1)
M. Crocombe
J. Osei-Tutu
C. Taylor
J. Cooper
Zak Norton Sturge
Jenson Metcalfe
D. Mazou-Sacko
M. Sykes
L. Dykes
C. Neghli
T. Arconte
Player Ratings ?
Middlesbrough
A. Cozier-DuberryM8.2
W. LankshearF8.0
A. MorrisM7.2
Millwall
T. ArconteF7.6
L. DykesM7.5
Zak Norton SturgeD6.9
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Middlesbrough edge recent form, attack and defence, Millwall edge head-to-head, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Middlesbrough stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Middlesbrough stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Middlesbrough slightly stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Millwall slightly stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Middlesbrough arrive at home with an impressive unbeaten run of four wins and a draw from their last five outings, while Millwall have struggled away in the same period with just one victory against two draws and two defeats. The hosts have found the net in four of their last five home matches but have only kept a single clean sheet during that identical sample. Millwall face significant squad concerns with eight players out and two others listed as doubtful ahead of the fixture. Middlesbrough rate stronger on form and attack, with a slight advantage in defence, while Millwall hold a slight advantage in head-to-head. Millwall won the most recent meeting 2-1 on 3 April 2026, having won 2 of the last 5 encounters to Middlesbrough's 3, with 0 ending level; the fixture has averaged 2.4 goals per meeting. Over the 2-day comparison window, Middlesbrough's implied win probability has risen by 1.6 percentage points, while Millwall's implied win probability has fallen by 1.0 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
3/5
One-goal H2H results
13
Middlesbrough points from last 5 matches
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Notable shift towards Middlesbrough
Middlesbrough's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Middlesbrough win as more likely than it did 2 days ago.
Movement strength: Notable
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Middlesbrough win
Latest market chance 60.5%
Notable shortening
Market chance increased
58.9% → 60.5%
+1.6 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 21.8%
Steady
Market view unchanged
22.4% → 21.8%
−0.6 pts
Millwall win
Latest market chance 17.7%
Slight drift
Market chance decreased
18.7% → 17.7%
−1.0 pts
9 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 2 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
MiddlesbroughMillwall
Season Profile
This season
5th
League Position
13th
6
Games Played
6
2.17
Points/Game
1.50
2.00
Goals/Game
1.83
1.33
Conceded/Game
1.83
17.5
Shots/Game
15.0
5.1
Shots on Target
4.1
Home vs Away Context
Middlesbrough at home (4 matches) vs Millwall away (4 matches)
2.50
Points/Game
1.00
2.75
Goals/Game
1.50
1.75
Conceded/Game
2.50
75%
Win Rate
25%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Middlesbrough
Home form
W
D
W
W
W
Won 3 straight at home
2 of these matches from last season.
2.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Millwall
Away form
D
D
W
L
L
1W 2D 2L in last 5 away
2 of these matches from last season.
1.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Middlesbrough Wins
3
Draws
0
Millwall Wins
2
Avg Goals
2.4
Middlesbrough1 – 2Millwall
Millwall0 – 3Middlesbrough
Millwall1 – 0Middlesbrough
Middlesbrough1 – 0Millwall
Millwall1 – 3Middlesbrough
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Middlesbroughvs
Millwall
Recent Scoring Profile
1.50
Goals scored / game
1.40
1.30
Goals conceded / game
1.40
6/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
5/10
7/10
Both Teams Scored
3/10
2/10
Failed to Score
3/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 58.1%→Latest 58.4%+0.3 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 56.0%→Latest 55.4%−0.6 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
4 of Middlesbrough's 10 matches and 4 of Millwall's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?