Middlesbrough vs Norwich Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Riverside Stadium
Sat 12 Sep 2026 · 15:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
1.85
Draw
4.11
Away Win
3.88
Match Report
Full Time
4 – 3
Match Events ?
Middlesbrough
Norwich
1'
⚽ Mohamed Toure
Sebastian Berhalter (Tommy Conway) ⚽
4'
Amario Cozier-Duberry (Tommy Conway) ⚽
7'
Sebastian Berhalter ⚽
36'
Riley McGree 🟨
53'
70'
⚽ J. Makama (Jacob Wright)
75'
⚽ Jacob Wright (Paris Maghoma)
Ashley Phillips 🟨
89'
90'
🟨 Jack Stacey
Ashley Phillips ⚽
90+1'
Match Statistics ?
52%
Ball Possession
48%
17
Total Shots
13
6
Shots on Goal
5
3
Corner Kicks
5
13
Fouls
9
2
Yellow Cards
1
0
Red Cards
0
3
Offsides
1
2
Goalkeeper Saves
2
Starting Lineups
Middlesbrough (4-2-3-1)
R. Vítek
C. Brittain
A. Malanda
A. Jones
Neto Borges
A. Morris
S. Berhalter
A. Cozier-Duberry
R. McGree
T. Conway
W. Lankshear
Norwich (4-2-3-1)
V. Kovačević
K. Fisher
Ruairi McConville
J. Córdoba
B. Chrisene
K. McLean
P. Mattsson
A. Brooks
A. Ben Slimane
A. Musaba
M. Touré
Player Ratings ?
Middlesbrough
S. BerhalterM8.3
A. Cozier-DuberryM7.8
T. ConwayM7.0
Norwich
Jacob WrightM8.2
M. TouréF7.6
J. MakamaF7.3
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Middlesbrough edge recent form, attack, defence and head-to-head, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Middlesbrough slightly stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Middlesbrough slightly stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Middlesbrough stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Middlesbrough stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Middlesbrough have enjoyed a perfect run at home with four wins and a draw in their last five outings, while Norwich have found it harder on the road with two victories and three defeats across that same span. The Boro have scored in four of their last five home matches but have also kept two clean sheets within that identical recent sample. Norwich carry three players out and one doubtful for the fixture against Middlesbrough. Middlesbrough rate stronger on form, defence and head-to-head, with a slight advantage in attack. Middlesbrough won the most recent meeting 1-0 on 31 January 2026, having won 3 of the last 5 encounters to Norwich's 0, with 2 ending level; the fixture has averaged 2.8 goals per meeting. The overall statistical comparison gives Middlesbrough a slight edge.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Notable shift towards Norwich
Norwich's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Norwich win as more likely than it did 4 days ago. Middlesbrough remain the clear market favourite.
Movement strength: Notable
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Middlesbrough win
Latest market chance 51.2%
Slight drift
Market chance decreased
52.5% → 51.2%
−1.3 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 24.0%
Steady
Market view unchanged
24.3% → 24.0%
−0.3 pts
Norwich win
Latest market chance 24.8%
Notable shortening
Market chance increased
23.2% → 24.8%
+1.6 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Middlesbrough
Draw
Norwich
7 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 4 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
MiddlesbroughNorwich

Season Profile
This season
7th
League Position
10th
5
Games Played
6
2.00
Points/Game
1.50
1.60
Goals/Game
1.67
1.00
Conceded/Game
1.50
17.5
Shots/Game
15.0
5.1
Shots on Target
5.5
Home vs Away Context
Middlesbrough at home (4 matches) vs Norwich away (4 matches)
2.50
Points/Game
0.75
2.75
Goals/Game
1.50
1.75
Conceded/Game
2.25
75%
Win Rate
25%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches

Middlesbrough
Home form
W
W
D
W
W
Unbeaten in last 5 at home
3 of these matches from last season.
2.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS

Norwich
Away form
W
L
L
L
W
Lost 3 of last 5 away
2 of these matches from last season.
1.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Middlesbrough Wins
3
Draws
2
Norwich Wins
0
Avg Goals
2.8
Middlesbrough1 – 0Norwich
Norwich1 – 2Middlesbrough
Middlesbrough0 – 0Norwich
Norwich3 – 3Middlesbrough
Middlesbrough3 – 1Norwich
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Middlesbroughvs
Norwich

Recent Scoring Profile
1.60
Goals scored / game
1.80
1.10
Goals conceded / game
1.50
6/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
8/10
7/10
Both Teams Scored
8/10
2/10
Failed to Score
2/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 58.1%→Latest 60.4%+2.3 pts
Notable move towards 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 59.2%→Latest 61.5%+2.3 pts
Notable move towards both teams scoring
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
The market is more cautious on both teams scoring than both teams' recent records.
5 of Middlesbrough's 10 matches and 4 of Norwich's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?