Middlesbrough vs Wolves Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Riverside Stadium
Sat 10 Oct 2026 · 15:00 UK
Latest Odds
Home Win
2.27
Draw
3.67
Away Win
2.96
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Middlesbrough edge attack, Wolves edge defence and head-to-head, recent form is closely matched, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Closely matched
HomeAway
Attack
Middlesbrough stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Wolves slightly stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Wolves stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Middlesbrough have secured three wins and two draws from their last five outings at home, whereas Wolves have managed only two victories in that same number of away fixtures. At Roker Park, Middlesbrough have found the net in four of their last five matches but have conceded goals in all but one of those same recent home games. Middlesbrough rate stronger on attack, while Wolves rate stronger on head-to-head, with a slight advantage in defence, while form is closely matched. This is the first time these two sides have met in the league since 2018. Over the 20-day comparison window, Middlesbrough's implied win probability has fallen by 2.6 percentage points, while Wolves's implied win probability has risen by 2.9 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
Pre-Match Context
Team Availability
Middlesbrough
No current absences reported
Wolves
No current absences reported
Advertisement
Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Notable shift towards Wolves
Wolves's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Wolves win as more likely than it did 20 days ago. Middlesbrough remain the clear market favourite.
Movement strength: Notable
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Middlesbrough win
Latest market chance 42.1%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
44.7% → 42.1%
−2.6 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 26.0%
Steady
Market view unchanged
26.3% → 26.0%
−0.3 pts
Wolves win
Latest market chance 31.9%
Notable shortening
Market chance increased
29.0% → 31.9%
+2.9 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Middlesbrough
Draw
Wolves
5 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 20 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
MiddlesbroughWolves
Season Profile
This season
3rd
League Position
5th
8
Games Played
7
1.88
Points/Game
2.00
2.00
Goals/Game
2.14
1.50
Conceded/Game
1.43
17.5
Shots/Game
16.0
5.1
Shots on Target
4.6
Home vs Away Context
Middlesbrough at home (4 matches) vs Wolves away (4 matches)
2.50
Points/Game
1.75
2.75
Goals/Game
2.00
1.75
Conceded/Game
1.75
75%
Win Rate
50%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Middlesbrough
Home form
D
W
W
W
D
Unbeaten in last 5 at home
1 of these match from last season.
2.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Wolves
Away form
L
W
L
D
W
2W 1D 2L in last 5 away
1 of these match from last season.
1.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Middlesbrough Wins
3
Draws
0
Wolves Wins
2
Avg Goals
2.8
Middlesbrough1 – 2Wolves
Wolves1 – 0Middlesbrough
Middlesbrough2 – 1Wolves
Wolves1 – 3Middlesbrough
Middlesbrough2 – 1Wolves
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Middlesbroughvs
Wolves
Recent Scoring Profile
1.70
Goals scored / game
1.90
1.50
Goals conceded / game
1.30
7/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
7/10
8/10
Both Teams Scored
5/10
1/10
Failed to Score
2/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 57.0%→Latest 59.0%+2.0 pts
Notable move towards 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
The market is more cautious on 3+ goals than both teams' recent records.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 59.7%→Latest 61.9%+2.2 pts
Notable move towards both teams scoring
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
2 of Middlesbrough's 10 matches and 3 of Wolves's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?