Millwall vs Bolton Head to Head, Prediction
The Den
Sat 05 Sep 2026 · 15:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
1.99
Draw
3.38
Away Win
4.12
Match Report
Full Time
4 – 0
Match Events ?
Millwall
Bolton
C. Taylor (J. Metcalfe) ⚽
38'
75'
🟨 Akin Famewo
L. Dykes (Z. Lovelace) ⚽
83'
Jenson Metcalfe 🟥
86'
86'
🟥 Josh Sheehan
L. Dykes (Z. Sturge) ⚽
88'
C. Neghli ⚽
90'
Match Statistics ?
39%
Ball Possession
61%
12
Total Shots
13
5
Shots on Goal
4
3
Corner Kicks
9
13
Fouls
14
0
Yellow Cards
1
1
Red Cards
1
8
Offsides
0
4
Goalkeeper Saves
1
Starting Lineups
Millwall (4-2-3-1)
M. Crocombe
J. Osei-Tutu
C. Taylor
J. Cooper
Z. Sturge
D. Mazou-Sacko
J. Metcalfe
R. Esse
T. Arconte
C. Neghli
L. Dykes
Bolton (4-2-3-1)
J. Bonham
L. Brunt
C. Forino-Joseph
B. Davies
A. Famewo
X. Simons
J. Sheehan
S. Iling Junior
J. McAtee
T. Gale
S. Dalby
Player Ratings ?
Millwall
Max CrocombeG8.9
Lyndon DykesF8.7
Caleb TaylorD8.5
Bolton
Rúben RodriguesF7.3
Lewis BruntD6.9
Akin FamewoD6.7
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Data favours
Millwall
Millwall rate stronger in recent form, attack and defence; Bolton edge head-to-head, giving Millwall an edge.
Leads 3 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Millwall stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Millwall stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Millwall stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Bolton stronger
HomeAway
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift away from Millwall
Millwall's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Millwall win as less likely than it did 5 days ago.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Millwall win
Latest market chance 49.5%
Strong drift
Market chance decreased
59.8% → 49.5%
−10.3 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 27.7%
Strong shortening
Market chance increased
24.5% → 27.7%
+3.2 pts
Bolton win
Latest market chance 22.8%
Strong shortening
Market chance increased
15.7% → 22.8%
+7.1 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Millwall
Draw
Bolton
10 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 5 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
MillwallBolton
Season Profile
This season
11th
League Position
16th
4
Games Played
4
1.50
Points/Game
1.00
1.50
Goals/Game
1.00
2.00
Conceded/Game
1.25
15.0
Shots/Game
12.2
4.1
Shots on Target
4.8
Home vs Away Context
Millwall at home (4 matches) vs Bolton away (4 matches)
1.75
Points/Game
1.00
2.25
Goals/Game
1.50
1.25
Conceded/Game
2.50
50%
Win Rate
25%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Millwall
Home form
W
W
L
W
L
Won 3 of last 5 at home
3 of these matches from last season.
1.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
3/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Bolton
Away form
L
L
L
D
L
Winless in last 5 away
3 of these matches from last season.
0.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
1/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Millwall Wins
1
Draws
2
Bolton Wins
2
Avg Goals
2.2
Bolton2 – 1Millwall
Millwall1 – 1Bolton
Bolton0 – 2Millwall
Millwall1 – 1Bolton
Bolton2 – 0Millwall
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Millwallvs
Bolton
Recent Scoring Profile
1.40
Goals scored / game
0.40
1.20
Goals conceded / game
1.70
4/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
3/10
3/10
Both Teams Scored
2/10
3/10
Failed to Score
8/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 10 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 47.4%→Latest 46.9%−0.5 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
The market is pricing a higher chance of 3+ goals than either team's recent rate.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 46.4%→Latest 50.1%+3.7 pts
Strong move towards both teams scoring
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
The market is pricing a higher chance of both teams scoring than either team's recent rate.
6 of Millwall's 10 matches and 6 of Bolton's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?