Millwall vs West Ham Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
The Den
Sat 19 Sep 2026 · 12:30 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
4.43
Draw
3.85
Away Win
1.80
Match Report
Full Time
2 – 2
Match Events ?
Millwall
West Ham
Caleb Taylor ⚽
16'
40'
🟨 Felipe Morato
Camiel Neghli (Lyndon Dykes) ⚽
45+3'
74'
⚽ Mohamadou Kante (Pablo Felipe Pereira de Jesus)
80'
⚽ Konstantinos Mavropanos (Manor Solomon)
83'
🟨 Pablo Felipe Pereira de Jesus
86'
🟨 Maximilian Kilman
89'
🟥 Mohamadou Kante
90+5'
🟨 Konstantinos Mavropanos
Kyrell Lisbie 🟨
90+5'
Match Statistics ?
33%
Ball Possession
67%
19
Total Shots
15
7
Shots on Goal
6
3
Corner Kicks
11
17
Fouls
18
1
Yellow Cards
4
0
Red Cards
1
1
Offsides
2
4
Goalkeeper Saves
4
Starting Lineups
Millwall (4-2-3-1)
F. Marschall
J. Osei-Tutu
C. Taylor
J. Cooper
Zak Norton Sturge
Jenson Metcalfe
D. Mazou-Sacko
M. Sykes
L. Dykes
C. Neghli
T. Arconte
West Ham (4-4-2)
M. Hermansen
K. Walker-Peters
K. Mavropanos
M. Kilman
Morato
J. Bowen
D. Mukasa
A. Engels
M. Solomon
J. Piroe
V. Castellanos
Player Ratings ?
Millwall
C. TaylorD7.4
C. NeghliM7.3
F. MarschallG7.3
West Ham
M. SolomonM7.4
M. HermansenG7.1
E. AustböF6.8
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. West Ham edge recent form, attack, defence and head-to-head, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
West Ham stronger
HomeAway
Attack
West Ham stronger
HomeAway
Defence
West Ham slightly stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
West Ham stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
West Ham have enjoyed a solid away run with two wins and three draws from their last five outings, while Millwall find themselves on a mixed home record with three victories but two defeats in the same span. At home, the Lions have managed to score in just three of their last five matches, yet they have also kept three clean sheets during that identical period. Millwall face significant squad concerns with nine players out and one doubtful, whereas West Ham have only one absentee alongside a single player under doubt. West Ham rate stronger on form, attack and head-to-head, with a slight advantage in defence. This is the first time these two sides have met in the league since 2012. Over the 6-day comparison window, Millwall's implied win probability has fallen by 1.6 percentage points, while West Ham's implied win probability has risen by 0.6 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Notable shift away from Millwall
Millwall's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Millwall win as less likely than it did 6 days ago. West Ham remain the clear market favourite.
Movement strength: Notable
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Millwall win
Latest market chance 22.4%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
24.0% → 22.4%
−1.6 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 25.0%
Slight shortening
Market chance increased
24.1% → 25.0%
+0.9 pts
West Ham win
Latest market chance 52.6%
Steady
Market view unchanged
52.0% → 52.6%
+0.6 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Millwall
Draw
West Ham
7 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 6 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
MillwallWest Ham
Season Profile
This season
12th
League Position
1st
7
Games Played
7
1.43
Points/Game
2.00
1.86
Goals/Game
2.86
1.86
Conceded/Game
1.29
15.0
Shots/Game
15.8
4.1
Shots on Target
5.9
Home vs Away Context
Millwall at home (4 matches) vs West Ham away (4 matches)
1.75
Points/Game
1.50
2.25
Goals/Game
2.00
1.25
Conceded/Game
1.75
50%
Win Rate
25%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Millwall
Home form
W
L
W
L
W
Won 3 of last 5 at home
2 of these matches from last season.
1.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
3/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
West Ham
Away form
D
W
D
D
W
Unbeaten in last 5 away
2 of these matches from last season.
1.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Millwall Wins
2
Draws
2
West Ham Wins
1
Avg Goals
2.2
West Ham2 – 1Millwall
Millwall0 – 0West Ham
West Ham1 – 1Millwall
Millwall1 – 0West Ham
Millwall4 – 1West Ham
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Millwallvs
West Ham
Recent Scoring Profile
1.50
Goals scored / game
2.50
1.50
Goals conceded / game
1.20
6/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
8/10
3/10
Both Teams Scored
8/10
3/10
Failed to Score
0/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 59.9%→Latest 59.2%−0.7 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 60.9%→Latest 59.7%−1.2 pts
Slight move away from both teams scoring
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
3 of Millwall's 10 matches and 3 of West Ham's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?