Norwich vs Birmingham Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Carrow Road
Wed 09 Sep 2026 · 19:45 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
1.88
Draw
3.87
Away Win
3.96
Match Report
Full Time
2 – 1
Match Events ?
Norwich
Birmingham
Benjamin Chrisene 🟨
13'
Jose Cordoba 🟨
25'
Oscar Schwartau (Mathias Kvistgaarden) ⚽
28'
Papa Amadou Diallo (Andre Brooks) ⚽
39'
Jack Stacey 🟨
59'
Oscar Schwartau 🟨
60'
60'
🟨 Carlos Vicente
64'
⚽ Carlos Vicente (Liam Millar)
83'
🟨 Phil Neumann
J. Makama 🟨
83'
Ante Crnac 🟨
90+4'
Match Statistics ?
51%
Ball Possession
49%
15
Total Shots
14
6
Shots on Goal
3
6
Corner Kicks
7
12
Fouls
9
6
Yellow Cards
2
0
Red Cards
0
3
Offsides
4
2
Goalkeeper Saves
4
Starting Lineups
Norwich (4-2-3-1)
V. Kovačević
J. Stacey
Ruairi McConville
J. Córdoba
B. Chrisene
K. McLean
P. Mattsson
A. Brooks
P. Diallo
O. Schwartau
M. Kvistgaarden
Birmingham (4-2-3-1)
J. Beadle
B. Osayi-Samuel
P. Neumann
C. Klarer
K. Lund
T. Iwata
Paik Seung-Ho
Carlos Vicente
J. Stansfield
L. Millar
A. Priske
Player Ratings ?
Norwich
P. DialloM7.7
O. SchwartauM7.5
A. BrooksM7.0
Birmingham
L. MillarM7.2
Carlos VicenteM7.2
J. BeadleG6.6
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Norwich edge attack, Birmingham edge recent form, defence and head-to-head, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Birmingham stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Norwich stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Birmingham stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Birmingham stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Birmingham have secured just one victory from their last five away fixtures across seasons, while Norwich have recorded two wins and suffered two defeats in their last five home outings during the same period. Norwich have scored in four of their last five home matches but have failed to keep a clean sheet in any of those five encounters. Both sides face similar availability concerns, with three players unavailable and one doubtful for each squad ahead of the fixture. Birmingham rate stronger on form, defence and head-to-head, while Norwich rate stronger on attack. Birmingham won the most recent meeting 2-1 on 21 February 2026, having won 3 of the last 5 encounters to Norwich's 2, with 0 ending level; the fixture has averaged 3.0 goals per meeting. Over the 2-day comparison window, Norwich's implied win probability has risen by 1.1 percentage points, while Birmingham's implied win probability has fallen by 0.7 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Slight shift towards Norwich
Norwich's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Norwich win as more likely than it did 2 days ago. This is a modest move, not a major change in market opinion.
Movement strength: Slight
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Norwich win
Latest market chance 49.2%
Slight shortening
Market chance increased
48.0% → 49.2%
+1.2 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 26.2%
Steady
Market view unchanged
26.6% → 26.2%
−0.4 pts
Birmingham win
Latest market chance 24.6%
Slight drift
Market chance decreased
25.4% → 24.6%
−0.8 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Norwich
Draw
Birmingham
13 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 2 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
NorwichBirmingham
Season Profile
This season
16th
League Position
14th
5
Games Played
5
1.20
Points/Game
1.40
1.60
Goals/Game
1.40
1.60
Conceded/Game
1.20
15.0
Shots/Game
13.2
5.5
Shots on Target
4.2
Home vs Away Context
Norwich at home (4 matches) vs Birmingham away (4 matches)
1.50
Points/Game
1.75
2.50
Goals/Game
1.25
2.00
Conceded/Game
1.00
50%
Win Rate
50%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Norwich
Home form
L
W
D
L
W
2W 1D 2L in last 5 at home
3 of these matches from last season.
1.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Birmingham
Away form
L
D
D
D
W
1W 3D 1L in last 5 away
3 of these matches from last season.
1.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Norwich Wins
2
Draws
0
Birmingham Wins
3
Avg Goals
3.0
Norwich1 – 2Birmingham
Birmingham4 – 1Norwich
Birmingham1 – 0Norwich
Norwich2 – 0Birmingham
Norwich3 – 1Birmingham
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Norwichvs
Birmingham
Recent Scoring Profile
1.60
Goals scored / game
1.50
1.60
Goals conceded / game
1.00
7/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
5/10
7/10
Both Teams Scored
8/10
3/10
Failed to Score
1/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 12 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 53.4%→Latest 54.5%+1.1 pts
Slight move towards 3+ goals
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 56.2%→Latest 56.8%+0.6 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
The market is more cautious on both teams scoring than both teams' recent records.
5 of Norwich's 10 matches and 5 of Birmingham's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?