Portsmouth vs Derby Head to Head, Prediction
Fratton Park
Tue 01 Sep 2026 · 19:45 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.20
Draw
3.41
Away Win
3.42
Match Report
Full Time
0 – 2
Match Events ?
Portsmouth
Derby
16'
⚽ S. Szmodics (B. Clark)
51'
🟨 S. Langas
62'
⚽ L. Salvesen (O. Fraulo)
T. Devlin 🟨
69'
83'
🟨 C. Taylor
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Portsmouth edge recent form and defence, Derby edge head-to-head, attack is closely matched, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Portsmouth stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Closely matched
HomeAway
Defence
Portsmouth stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Derby stronger
HomeAway
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Slight shift away from Derby
Derby's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Derby win as less likely than it did 2 days ago. This is a modest move, not a major change in market opinion. Portsmouth remain the clear market favourite.
Movement strength: Slight
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Portsmouth win
Latest market chance 42.8%
Slight shortening
Market chance increased
41.7% → 42.8%
+1.1 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 28.5%
Steady
Market view unchanged
28.4% → 28.5%
+0.1 pts
Derby win
Latest market chance 28.7%
Slight drift
Market chance decreased
29.9% → 28.7%
−1.2 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Portsmouth
Draw
Derby
12 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 2 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
PortsmouthDerby
Season Profile
This season
17th
League Position
21st
3
Games Played
3
1.00
Points/Game
0.33
1.67
Goals/Game
1.00
2.00
Conceded/Game
2.33
15.9
Shots/Game
12.2
4.6
Shots on Target
3.6
Home vs Away Context
Portsmouth at home (4 matches) vs Derby away (4 matches)
1.00
Points/Game
1.00
1.25
Goals/Game
1.00
1.75
Conceded/Game
1.50
25%
Win Rate
25%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Portsmouth
Home form
D
W
W
D
L
2W 2D 1L in last 5 at home
4 of these matches from last season.
1.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Derby
Away form
L
L
L
W
L
Lost 4 of last 5 away
4 of these matches from last season.
1.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Portsmouth Wins
0
Draws
3
Derby Wins
2
Avg Goals
3.0
Portsmouth0 – 1Derby
Derby1 – 1Portsmouth
Portsmouth2 – 2Derby
Derby4 – 0Portsmouth
Portsmouth2 – 2Derby
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Portsmouthvs
Derby
Recent Scoring Profile
1.60
Goals scored / game
1.40
1.50
Goals conceded / game
1.80
6/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
8/10
7/10
Both Teams Scored
7/10
0/10
Failed to Score
1/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 11 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 47.4%→Latest 47.2%−0.2 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
The market is more cautious on 3+ goals than both teams' recent records.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 53.0%→Latest 52.6%−0.4 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
The market is more cautious on both teams scoring than both teams' recent records.
7 of Portsmouth's 10 matches and 7 of Derby's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?