Southampton vs Bristol City Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Sat 12 Sep 2026 · 15:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
1.68
Draw
4.35
Away Win
4.64
Match Report
Full Time
4 – 1
Match Events ?
Southampton
Bristol City
Cyle Larin (Finn Azaz) ⚽
38'
54'
🟨 Lisav Naif Eissat
Cyle Larin ⚽
61'
66'
⚽ lorent tolaj (Rio Cardines)
Kuryu Matsuki (Finn Azaz) ⚽
82'
Finn Azaz (Divin Mubama) ⚽
85'
89'
🟨 Sam Greenwood
Match Statistics ?
56%
Ball Possession
44%
10
Total Shots
21
5
Shots on Goal
6
2
Corner Kicks
5
6
Fouls
14
0
Yellow Cards
2
0
Red Cards
0
4
Goalkeeper Saves
1
Starting Lineups
Southampton (4-2-3-1)
Daniel Peretz
J. Bree
N. Wood-Gordon
K. Schlotterbeck
R. Manning
J. Ward-Prowse
F. Downes
K. Matsuki
F. Azaz
Léo Scienza
C. Larin
Bristol City (4-2-3-1)
S. Tickle
G. Tanner
R. Dickie
L. Eissat
Rio Cardines
J. Williams
J. Knight
Y. Hirakawa
D. Ballard
S. Twine
L. Tolaj
Player Ratings ?
Southampton
C. LarinF8.6
F. AzazM8.6
K. MatsukiM7.5
Bristol City
L. TolajF7.9
Rio CardinesD7.3
J. WilliamsM6.7
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Southampton edge recent form and attack, Bristol City edge head-to-head, defence is closely matched, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Southampton stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Southampton stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Closely matched
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Bristol City stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Bristol City have managed two wins and two draws from their last five away fixtures, while Southampton remain unbeaten at home with three victories in that same span. Southampton have scored in all five of their recent home outings but have failed to keep a clean sheet during that period. There is one player unavailable for Southampton ahead of this fixture. Southampton rate stronger on form and attack, while Bristol City rate stronger on head-to-head, while defence is closely matched. The most recent meeting, on 21 April 2026, ended level, with 1 of the last 5 encounters drawn overall; the fixture has averaged 2.8 goals per meeting. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Notable shift away from Southampton
Southampton's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Southampton win as less likely than it did 4 days ago.
Movement strength: Notable
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Southampton win
Latest market chance 56.7%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
58.6% → 56.7%
−1.9 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 23.1%
Steady
Market view unchanged
22.8% → 23.1%
+0.3 pts
Bristol City win
Latest market chance 20.3%
Notable shortening
Market chance increased
18.7% → 20.3%
+1.6 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Southampton
Draw
Bristol City
7 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 4 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
SouthamptonBristol City
Season Profile
This season
3rd
League Position
8th
6
Games Played
5
1.83
Points/Game
2.00
2.33
Goals/Game
1.80
1.17
Conceded/Game
1.40
16.4
Shots/Game
14.2
4.9
Shots on Target
4.6
Home vs Away Context
Southampton at home (4 matches) vs Bristol City away (4 matches)
3.00
Points/Game
1.75
3.75
Goals/Game
2.00
1.00
Conceded/Game
2.00
100%
Win Rate
50%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Southampton
Home form
D
W
W
W
W
Won 4 straight at home
2 of these matches from last season.
3.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Bristol City
Away form
D
L
D
W
W
2W 2D 1L in last 5 away
2 of these matches from last season.
2.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Southampton Wins
1
Draws
1
Bristol City Wins
3
Avg Goals
2.8
Southampton2 – 2Bristol City
Bristol City3 – 1Southampton
Bristol City3 – 1Southampton
Southampton1 – 0Bristol City
Southampton0 – 1Bristol City
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Southamptonvs
Bristol City
Recent Scoring Profile
2.10
Goals scored / game
1.60
1.10
Goals conceded / game
1.50
7/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
7/10
9/10
Both Teams Scored
7/10
1/10
Failed to Score
2/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 59.9%→Latest 59.2%−0.7 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
The market is more cautious on 3+ goals than both teams' recent records.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 57.7%→Latest 58.3%+0.6 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
The market is more cautious on both teams scoring than both teams' recent records.
4 of Southampton's 10 matches and 5 of Bristol City's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?