Swansea vs Norwich Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis

Swansea.com Stadium
Sat 10 Oct 2026 · 12:30 UK
Latest Odds
Home Win
2.50
Draw
3.48
Away Win
2.76
Match Prediction
Data favours
Swansea
Swansea rate stronger in recent form, defence and head-to-head; attack is closely matched, giving Swansea a slight edge.
Leads 3 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Swansea stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Closely matched
HomeAway
Defence
Swansea stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Swansea stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Swansea look far more comfortable at home than Norwich do away from their ground in this fixture. The hosts have secured three wins and two draws from their last five outings without a single defeat, while the visitors have managed just one victory and four defeats over the same number of matches. Swansea have found the net in three of their last five home matches but have also kept three clean sheets during that identical run. This mix suggests a side capable of both scoring and protecting leads at the club's venue, even if consistency remains the primary question mark. Swansea rate stronger on form, defence and head-to-head, while attack is closely matched. The most recent meeting, on 25 April 2026, ended level, with 2 of the last 5 encounters drawn overall; the fixture has averaged 3.2 goals per meeting. Over the 20-day comparison window, Swansea's implied win probability has risen by 0.7 percentage points, while Norwich's implied win probability has fallen by 0.9 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison gives Swansea a slight edge.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
50%
Swansea yellow cards after 75'
3
Norwich points from last 5 matches
Team Availability
Swansea
No current absences reported
Norwich
No current absences reported
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Market View
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How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Slight shift away from Norwich
Norwich's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Norwich win as less likely than it did 20 days ago. This is a modest move, not a major change in market opinion. Swansea remain the clear market favourite.
Movement strength: Slight
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Swansea win
Latest market chance 37.8%
Steady
Market view unchanged
37.1% → 37.8%
+0.7 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 27.4%
Steady
Market view unchanged
27.2% → 27.4%
+0.2 pts
Norwich win
Latest market chance 34.8%
Slight drift
Market chance decreased
35.7% → 34.8%
−0.9 pts
Movement over time
Change vs first comparable snapshot
16 snapshots
+1+0.50−0.5Sep 20Sep 21Sep 22Sep 23Sep 24Sep 25Sep 26Sep 27Sep 28Sep 29Sep 30Oct 1Oct 2Oct 3Oct 4Oct 5
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Swansea
Draw
Norwich
5 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 20 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
Swansea
Norwich
Season Profile
This season
1st
League Position
17th
8
Games Played
8
2.13
Points/Game
1.13
1.62
Goals/Game
2.00
0.75
Conceded/Game
2.12
12.0
Shots/Game
15.0
4.9
Shots on Target
5.5
Home vs Away Context
Swansea at home (4 matches) vs Norwich away (4 matches)
2.00
Points/Game
0.75
1.25
Goals/Game
1.50
0.25
Conceded/Game
2.25
50%
Win Rate
25%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Swansea
Home form
W
D
W
D
W
Unbeaten in last 5 at home
1 of these match from last season.
1.6
Goals scored
per match
0.4
Goals conceded
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
3/5
Clean
sheets
VS
Norwich
Away form
L
L
L
W
L
Lost 4 of last 5 away
1 of these match from last season.
1.4
Goals scored
per match
2.2
Goals conceded
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Swansea Wins
2
Draws
2
Norwich Wins
1
Avg Goals
3.2
2026-04-252025-2026
Norwich1 – 1Swansea
2025-10-252025-2026
Swansea2 – 1Norwich
2025-01-252024-2025
Norwich5 – 1Swansea
2024-09-142024-2025
Swansea1 – 0Norwich
2024-04-272023-2024
Norwich2 – 2Swansea
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Swansea
vs
Norwich
Recent Scoring Profile
1.70
Goals scored / game
1.80
0.80
Goals conceded / game
2.00
6/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
8/10
6/10
Both Teams Scored
8/10
2/10
Failed to Score
2/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
75.9%
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
54.8%
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
34.0%
BTTSBoth teams score
58.7%
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 54.6%→Latest 54.3%−0.3 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
4 common bookmakers · first comparable 20 days before kickoff
The market is more cautious on 3+ goals than both teams' recent records.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 58.7%→Latest 58.4%−0.3 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
4 common bookmakers · first comparable 20 days before kickoff
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
2 of Swansea's 10 matches and 2 of Norwich's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
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