Watford vs Burnley Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Vicarage Road
Sat 10 Oct 2026 · 15:00 UK
Latest Odds
Home Win
2.95
Draw
3.67
Away Win
2.28
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Burnley edge recent form, attack and head-to-head, defence is closely matched, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Burnley stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Burnley stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Closely matched
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Burnley stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Burnley have recorded just one win and one draw from their last five away fixtures, whereas Watford have secured two victories in the same number of home outings. Watford have found the net in four of their last five matches at home but have failed to keep a clean sheet during that same run. Burnley rate stronger on form, attack and head-to-head, while defence is closely matched. Burnley won the most recent meeting 2-1 on 18 April 2025, having won 3 of the last 5 encounters to Watford's 1, with 1 ending level; the fixture has averaged 2.4 goals per meeting. Over the 20-day comparison window, Watford's implied win probability has fallen by 2.8 percentage points, while Burnley's implied win probability has risen by 4.3 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
Pre-Match Context
Team Availability
Watford
No current absences reported
Burnley
No current absences reported
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift towards Burnley
Burnley's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Burnley win as more likely than it did 20 days ago.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Watford win
Latest market chance 31.5%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
34.3% → 31.5%
−2.8 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 26.9%
Slight drift
Market chance decreased
28.3% → 26.9%
−1.4 pts
Burnley win
Latest market chance 41.6%
Strong shortening
Market chance increased
37.3% → 41.6%
+4.3 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Watford
Draw
Burnley
5 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 20 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
WatfordBurnley
Season Profile
This season
20th
League Position
24th
8
Games Played
8
1.00
Points/Game
0.50
0.88
Goals/Game
1.12
1.25
Conceded/Game
2.12
11.6
Shots/Game
13.4
3.5
Shots on Target
3.8
Home vs Away Context
Watford at home (4 matches) vs Burnley away (4 matches)
1.75
Points/Game
0.25
1.50
Goals/Game
1.00
1.25
Conceded/Game
2.75
50%
Win Rate
0%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Watford
Home form
L
W
D
W
L
2W 1D 2L in last 5 at home
1 of these match from last season.
1.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Burnley
Away form
W
L
L
D
L
Lost 3 of last 5 away
1 of these match from last season.
1.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Watford Wins
1
Draws
1
Burnley Wins
3
Avg Goals
2.4
Watford1 – 2Burnley
Burnley2 – 1Watford
Burnley1 – 1Watford
Watford1 – 0Burnley
Watford1 – 2Burnley
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Watfordvs
Burnley
Recent Scoring Profile
0.80
Goals scored / game
1.70
1.90
Goals conceded / game
1.80
5/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
7/10
6/10
Both Teams Scored
9/10
4/10
Failed to Score
0/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 50.3%→Latest 52.8%+2.5 pts
Notable move towards 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 55.7%→Latest 56.4%+0.7 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
2 of Watford's 10 matches and 2 of Burnley's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
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