Wrexham vs Southampton Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Racecourse Ground
Sat 19 Sep 2026 · 15:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.99
Draw
3.62
Away Win
2.34
Match Report
Full Time
2 – 1
Match Events ?
Wrexham
Southampton
14'
🟨 Cyle Larin
Kieffer Moore (Benjamin Whiteman) ⚽
35'
50'
⚽ James Ward-Prowse (Samuel Edozie)
69'
🟨 Nathan Wood-Gordon
Dominic Hyam 🟨
86'
Keven Schlotterbeck ⚽ (OG)
89'
90+2'
🟨 Ryan Manning
90+5'
🟨 Flynn Downes
Match Statistics ?
40%
Ball Possession
60%
8
Total Shots
20
4
Shots on Goal
7
2
Corner Kicks
3
8
Fouls
7
1
Yellow Cards
4
0
Red Cards
0
0
Offsides
2
6
Goalkeeper Saves
3
Starting Lineups
Wrexham (3-4-2-1)
A. Patterson
Z. Vyner
D. Hyam
C. Doyle
I. Kaboré
B. Sheaf
B. Whiteman
J. Ekomié
J. Windass
C. O'Hare
K. Moore
Southampton (4-2-3-1)
Daniel Peretz
J. Bree
N. Wood-Gordon
K. Schlotterbeck
R. Manning
F. Downes
J. Ward-Prowse
K. Matsuki
F. Azaz
Léo Scienza
C. Larin
Player Ratings ?
Wrexham
K. MooreF8.1
A. PattersonG7.6
B. WhitemanM7.3
Southampton
J. Ward-ProwseM8.2
F. DownesM7.2
R. ManningD6.8
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Data favours
Southampton
Southampton rate stronger in recent form, attack and head-to-head; defence is closely matched, giving Southampton a slight edge.
Leads 3 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Southampton stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Southampton stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Closely matched
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Southampton stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Southampton have recorded just one victory from their last five away outings, while Wrexham mirror that same record with a solitary win in their corresponding home sample. Wrexham have scored in all five of their recent home matches yet have managed only one clean sheet within that identical span. The hosts face three confirmed absences and two doubts, whereas Southampton are lighter with just a single certain absence and no players in doubt. Southampton rate stronger on form, attack and head-to-head, while defence is closely matched. Southampton won the most recent meeting 5-1 on 7 April 2026, having won 2 of the last 2 encounters to Wrexham's 0, with 0 ending level; the fixture has averaged 4.5 goals per meeting. Over the 6-day comparison window, Wrexham's implied win probability has risen by 2.0 percentage points, while Southampton's implied win probability has fallen by 1.8 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison gives Southampton a slight edge.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Notable shift towards Wrexham
Wrexham's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Wrexham win as more likely than it did 6 days ago. Southampton remain the clear market favourite.
Movement strength: Notable
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Wrexham win
Latest market chance 32.2%
Notable shortening
Market chance increased
30.2% → 32.2%
+2.0 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 27.2%
Steady
Market view unchanged
27.4% → 27.2%
−0.2 pts
Southampton win
Latest market chance 40.6%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
42.4% → 40.6%
−1.8 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Wrexham
Draw
Southampton
9 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 6 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
WrexhamSouthampton
Season Profile
This season
19th
League Position
2nd
7
Games Played
7
1.00
Points/Game
2.00
1.00
Goals/Game
2.57
1.57
Conceded/Game
1.14
10.9
Shots/Game
16.4
3.5
Shots on Target
4.9
Home vs Away Context
Wrexham at home (4 matches) vs Southampton away (4 matches)
1.25
Points/Game
0.50
1.25
Goals/Game
1.00
1.25
Conceded/Game
1.50
25%
Win Rate
0%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Wrexham
Home form
W
D
D
L
D
1W 3D 1L in last 5 at home
2 of these matches from last season.
1.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Southampton
Away form
W
D
L
D
D
1W 3D 1L in last 5 away
2 of these matches from last season.
1.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Wrexham Wins
0
Draws
0
Southampton Wins
2
Avg Goals
4.5
Wrexham1 – 5Southampton
Southampton2 – 1Wrexham
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Wrexhamvs
Southampton
Recent Scoring Profile
1.10
Goals scored / game
2.30
1.60
Goals conceded / game
1.00
5/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
7/10
6/10
Both Teams Scored
9/10
2/10
Failed to Score
1/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 53.2%→Latest 54.8%+1.6 pts
Notable move towards 3+ goals
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 57.6%→Latest 58.9%+1.3 pts
Slight move towards both teams scoring
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
3 of Wrexham's 10 matches and 3 of Southampton's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?