Ajax vs PSV Eindhoven Head to Head, Prediction
Johan Cruijff Arena
Sat 05 Sep 2026 · 19:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.60
Draw
4.10
Away Win
2.37
Match Report
Full Time
1 – 3
Match Events ?
Ajax
PSV Eindhoven
Davy Klaassen 🟨
-5'
-5'
🟨 Lutsharel Geertruida
-5'
🟨 Ivan Perišić
5'
⚽ R. Pepi (R. van Bommel)
16'
🟨 Kodai Sano
T. Arokodare ⚽
23'
37'
🟨 Noah Fernandez
45'
⚽ L. Geertruida
74'
🟨 Filip Kostić
Youri Baas 🟨
81'
81'
🟨 Ruben van Bommel
Anton Gaaei 🟨
90+6'
90'
⚽ E. Bajraktarevic (S. Mijnans)
Match Statistics ?
53%
Ball Possession
47%
19
Total Shots
13
6
Shots on Goal
5
1
Corner Kicks
1
6
Fouls
13
3
Yellow Cards
6
1
Offsides
1
2
Goalkeeper Saves
5
Starting Lineups
Ajax (4-3-3)
M. ter Stegen
A. Gaaei
A. Bouwman
Y. Baas
Caio Henrique
D. Klaassen
J. Mokio
J. Brandt
S. Berghuis
T. Arokodare
O. Gloukh
PSV Eindhoven (4-2-3-1)
M. Kovar
S. Dest
L. Geertruida
A. Obispo
Mauro Junior
K. Sano
N. Fernandez
I. Perisic
G. Til
R. van Bommel
R. Pepi
Player Ratings ?
Ajax
Marc-André Ter StegenG7.3
Jorthy MokioM7.3
Julian BrandtM7.2
PSV Eindhoven
Lutsharel GeertruidaD7.9
Sergiño DestD7.5
Matěj KovářG7.3
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Ajax edge head-to-head, PSV Eindhoven edge recent form, attack and defence, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
PSV Eindhoven stronger
HomeAway
Attack
PSV Eindhoven stronger
HomeAway
Defence
PSV Eindhoven slightly stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Ajax stronger
HomeAway
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Little change in the market
The betting market's view of this match has barely moved since the earliest comparable snapshot, 5 days before kickoff.
Movement strength: Steady
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Ajax win
Latest market chance 36.4%
Steady
Market view unchanged
36.2% → 36.4%
+0.2 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 23.6%
Steady
Market view unchanged
24.3% → 23.6%
−0.7 pts
PSV Eindhoven win
Latest market chance 40.0%
Steady
Market view unchanged
39.5% → 40.0%
+0.5 pts
6 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 5 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
AjaxPSV Eindhoven
Season Profile
This season
4th
League Position
2nd
3
Games Played
4
2.33
Points/Game
2.50
2.67
Goals/Game
3.75
0.67
Conceded/Game
1.25
24.7
Shots/Game
21.0
8.0
Shots on Target
8.4
Home vs Away Context
Ajax at home (4 matches) vs PSV Eindhoven away (4 matches)
1.25
Points/Game
2.25
2.50
Goals/Game
3.25
2.00
Conceded/Game
1.50
25%
Win Rate
75%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Ajax
Home form
D
L
W
D
D
1W 3D 1L in last 5 at home
4 of these matches from last season.
1.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
PSV Eindhoven
Away form
W
D
W
W
W
Won 3 straight away
3 of these matches from last season.
3.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Ajax Wins
2
Draws
3
PSV Eindhoven Wins
0
Avg Goals
3.4
Ajax2 – 2PSV Eindhoven
PSV Eindhoven2 – 2Ajax
PSV Eindhoven0 – 2Ajax
Ajax3 – 2PSV Eindhoven
Ajax1 – 1PSV Eindhoven
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Ajaxvs
PSV Eindhoven
Recent Scoring Profile
1.90
Goals scored / game
3.80
0.70
Goals conceded / game
1.30
5/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
9/10
4/10
Both Teams Scored
9/10
1/10
Failed to Score
0/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 5 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 69.7%→Latest 72.9%+3.2 pts
Strong move towards 3+ goals
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 70.7%→Latest 72.5%+1.8 pts
Notable move towards both teams scoring
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
7 of Ajax's 10 matches and 6 of PSV Eindhoven's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?