Ajax vs Willem II Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Johan Cruijff Arena
Tue 15 Sep 2026 · 19:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
1.12
Draw
10.74
Away Win
16.69
Match Report
Full Time
5 – 1
Match Events ?
Ajax
Willem II
Davy Klaassen (Kasper Dolberg) ⚽
41'
Julian Brandt (Lucas Oliveira·Rosa) ⚽
45'
Viktor Tsygankov (Oscar Gloukh) ⚽
69'
Oscar Gloukh (Kasper Dolberg) ⚽
74'
76'
⚽ Alessandro Ciranni (Uriël van Aalst)
Kasper Dolberg ⚽
87'
Match Statistics ?
70%
Ball Possession
30%
33
Total Shots
10
12
Shots on Goal
4
14
Corner Kicks
2
6
Fouls
3
0
Yellow Cards
0
0
Red Cards
0
3
Offsides
4
3
Goalkeeper Saves
7
Starting Lineups
Ajax (4-3-3)
M. Paes
Lucas Rosa
T. Kehrer
Y. Baas
O. Wijndal
D. Klaassen
J. Mokio
J. Brandt
S. Berghuis
K. Dolberg
O. Gloukh
Willem II (4-2-3-1)
M. Delanghe
H. ter Avest
F. Stam
M. Dekker
N. Tjoe-A-On
C. Twigt
T. Vilhena
Per van Loon
Uriel van Aalst
J. Slory
D. Haen
Player Ratings ?
Ajax
K. DolbergF9.2
O. GloukhF9.0
J. BrandtM8.2
Willem II
Uriel van AalstM7.2
M. DelangheG6.7
E. GürbüzF6.5
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Data favours
Ajax
Ajax rate stronger across every major category. They lead recent form, attack, defence and head-to-head, giving Ajax a very strong edge.
Leads 4 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Ajax stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Ajax stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Ajax stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Ajax stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Willem II have found consistency elusive away from home with just three draws and two defeats in their last five outings, while Ajax have managed a solitary win alongside two stalemates in their corresponding home sample. Ajax have found the net in all five of their recent home fixtures but have only kept one clean sheet during that same span. Three players are unavailable for Ajax, whereas Willem II face a more significant challenge with seven absentees ahead of the clash. Ajax rate stronger on form, attack, defence and head-to-head. Ajax won the most recent meeting 2-1 on 13 April 2025, having won 5 of the last 5 encounters to Willem II's 0, with 0 ending level; the fixture has averaged 2.8 goals per meeting. Over the 8-day comparison window, Ajax's implied win probability has risen by 1.7 percentage points, while Willem II's implied win probability has fallen by 0.8 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison points very strongly towards Ajax.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
3/5
One-goal H2H results
3
Willem II points from last 5 matches
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift towards Ajax
Ajax's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Ajax win as more likely than it did 8 days ago.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Ajax win
Latest market chance 84.5%
Strong shortening
Market chance increased
80.0% → 84.5%
+4.5 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 10.2%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
12.9% → 10.2%
−2.7 pts
Willem II win
Latest market chance 5.3%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
7.1% → 5.3%
−1.8 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Ajax
Draw
Willem II
6 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 8 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
AjaxWillem II
Season Profile
This season
5th
League Position
17th
5
Games Played
5
2.00
Points/Game
0.40
2.80
Goals/Game
1.00
1.20
Conceded/Game
2.80
24.7
Shots/Game
11.9
8.0
Shots on Target
2.7
Home vs Away Context
Ajax at home (4 matches) vs Willem II away (3 matches)
1.25
Points/Game
0.33
2.50
Goals/Game
1.00
2.00
Conceded/Game
3.33
25%
Win Rate
0%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Ajax
Home form
L
W
D
D
L
1W 2D 2L in last 5 at home
3 of these matches from last season.
1.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Willem II
Away form
L
D
D
L
D
Winless in last 5 away
3 of these matches from last season.
0.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Ajax Wins
5
Draws
0
Willem II Wins
0
Avg Goals
2.8
Willem II1 – 2Ajax
Ajax1 – 0Willem II
Willem II0 – 1Ajax
Ajax5 – 0Willem II
Ajax3 – 1Willem II
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Ajaxvs
Willem II
Recent Scoring Profile
2.00
Goals scored / game
0.90
1.10
Goals conceded / game
2.10
6/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
6/10
6/10
Both Teams Scored
8/10
1/10
Failed to Score
2/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 76.2%→Latest 77.9%+1.7 pts
Notable move towards 3+ goals
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
The market is pricing a higher chance of 3+ goals than either team's recent rate.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 57.6%→Latest 52.7%−4.9 pts
Strong move away from both teams scoring
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
The market is more cautious on both teams scoring than both teams' recent records.
5 of Ajax's 10 matches and 5 of Willem II's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?