Excelsior vs Groningen Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Stadion Woudestein
Sun 11 Oct 2026 · 15:45 UK
Latest Odds
Home Win
2.60
Draw
3.68
Away Win
2.54
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Excelsior edge recent form and defence, Groningen edge head-to-head, attack is closely matched, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Excelsior slightly stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Closely matched
HomeAway
Defence
Excelsior stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Groningen slightly stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Groningen have secured two away victories in their last five outings across seasons, while Excelsior have also recorded two home wins during their corresponding five-game sample. Excelsior have found the net in all five of their recent home matches but have managed just one clean sheet within that same span. Excelsior rate stronger on defence, with a slight advantage in form, while Groningen hold a slight advantage in head-to-head, while attack is closely matched. Excelsior won the most recent meeting 3-2 on 2 May 2026, having won 2 of the last 5 encounters to Groningen's 3, with 0 ending level; the fixture has averaged 2.4 goals per meeting. Over the 23-day comparison window, Excelsior's implied win probability has fallen by 4.1 percentage points, while Groningen's implied win probability has risen by 3.8 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
3/5
One-goal H2H results
45%
Excelsior yellow cards after 75'
Team Availability
Excelsior
No current absences reported
Groningen
No current absences reported
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift away from Excelsior
Excelsior's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Excelsior win as less likely than it did 23 days ago. Groningen remain the clear market favourite.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Excelsior win
Latest market chance 36.8%
Strong drift
Market chance decreased
40.9% → 36.8%
−4.1 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 26.0%
Steady
Market view unchanged
25.8% → 26.0%
+0.2 pts
Groningen win
Latest market chance 37.2%
Strong shortening
Market chance increased
33.4% → 37.2%
+3.8 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Excelsior
Draw
Groningen
4 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 23 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
ExcelsiorGroningen
Season Profile
This season
7th
League Position
9th
7
Games Played
7
1.57
Points/Game
1.57
2.14
Goals/Game
2.14
1.29
Conceded/Game
1.86
11.3
Shots/Game
14.9
4.7
Shots on Target
5.4
Home vs Away Context
Excelsior at home (3 matches) vs Groningen away (3 matches)
1.00
Points/Game
1.33
1.33
Goals/Game
2.00
1.67
Conceded/Game
2.33
33%
Win Rate
33%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Excelsior
Home form
W
D
L
W
L
2W 1D 2L in last 5 at home
2 of these matches from last season.
2.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Groningen
Away form
W
L
W
L
D
2W 1D 2L in last 5 away
2 of these matches from last season.
1.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Excelsior Wins
2
Draws
0
Groningen Wins
3
Avg Goals
2.4
Groningen2 – 3Excelsior
Excelsior0 – 2Groningen
Groningen3 – 0Excelsior
Excelsior1 – 0Groningen
Groningen1 – 0Excelsior
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Excelsiorvs
Groningen
Recent Scoring Profile
2.20
Goals scored / game
1.90
1.40
Goals conceded / game
1.70
9/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
8/10
8/10
Both Teams Scored
8/10
0/10
Failed to Score
1/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 6 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 62.4%→Latest 61.2%−1.2 pts
Slight move away from 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
The market is more cautious on 3+ goals than both teams' recent records.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 64.6%→Latest 63.2%−1.4 pts
Slight move away from both teams scoring
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
The market is more cautious on both teams scoring than both teams' recent records.
3 of Excelsior's 10 matches and 3 of Groningen's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?