Groningen vs Ajax Head to Head, Prediction
Euroborg
Sun 18 Oct 2026 · 15:45 UK
Latest Odds
Home Win
4.32
Draw
4.38
Away Win
1.72
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Ajax edge recent form, attack, defence and head-to-head, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Ajax slightly stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Ajax stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Ajax stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Ajax stronger
HomeAway
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Little change in the market
The betting market's view of this match has barely moved since the earliest comparable snapshot, 15 days before kickoff.
Movement strength: Steady
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Groningen win
Latest market chance 22.7%
Steady
Market view unchanged
22.7% → 22.7%
±0.0 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 21.9%
Steady
Market view unchanged
21.9% → 21.9%
±0.0 pts
Ajax win
Latest market chance 55.4%
Steady
Market view unchanged
55.4% → 55.4%
±0.0 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Groningen
Draw
Ajax
5 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 15 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
GroningenAjax
Season Profile
This season
9th
League Position
5th
7
Games Played
7
1.57
Points/Game
2.00
2.14
Goals/Game
3.00
1.86
Conceded/Game
1.29
14.9
Shots/Game
24.7
5.4
Shots on Target
8.0
Home vs Away Context
Groningen at home (4 matches) vs Ajax away (3 matches)
1.75
Points/Game
3.00
2.25
Goals/Game
3.67
1.50
Conceded/Game
0.33
50%
Win Rate
100%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Groningen
Home form
W
W
L
D
W
Won 3 of last 5 at home
1 of these match from last season.
2.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Ajax
Away form
W
D
W
W
W
Won 3 straight away
2 of these matches from last season.
2.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
4/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Groningen Wins
1
Draws
1
Ajax Wins
3
Avg Goals
3.2
Ajax2 – 0Groningen
Groningen3 – 1Ajax
Ajax2 – 0Groningen
Groningen2 – 2Ajax
Ajax3 – 1Groningen
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Groningenvs
Ajax
Recent Scoring Profile
1.90
Goals scored / game
2.40
1.70
Goals conceded / game
1.00
8/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
6/10
8/10
Both Teams Scored
6/10
1/10
Failed to Score
1/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 5 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 67.7%→Latest 67.7%±0.0 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 65.7%→Latest 65.7%±0.0 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
3 of Groningen's 10 matches and 3 of Ajax's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?