Heerenveen vs Excelsior Head to Head, Prediction
Abe Lenstra Stadion
Fri 16 Oct 2026 · 19:00 UK
Latest Odds
Home Win
1.78
Draw
4.12
Away Win
4.23
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Heerenveen edge head-to-head, Excelsior edge recent form and attack, defence is closely matched, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Excelsior stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Excelsior stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Closely matched
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Heerenveen stronger
HomeAway
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Little change in the market
The betting market's view of this match has barely moved since the earliest comparable snapshot, 13 days before kickoff.
Movement strength: Steady
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Heerenveen win
Latest market chance 53.4%
Steady
Market view unchanged
53.4% → 53.4%
±0.0 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 23.4%
Steady
Market view unchanged
23.4% → 23.4%
±0.0 pts
Excelsior win
Latest market chance 23.2%
Steady
Market view unchanged
23.2% → 23.2%
±0.0 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Heerenveen
Draw
Excelsior
5 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 13 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
HeerenveenExcelsior
Season Profile
This season
10th
League Position
7th
7
Games Played
7
1.29
Points/Game
1.57
1.57
Goals/Game
2.14
1.29
Conceded/Game
1.29
16.0
Shots/Game
11.3
6.0
Shots on Target
4.7
Home vs Away Context
Heerenveen at home (4 matches) vs Excelsior away (4 matches)
1.00
Points/Game
2.00
0.75
Goals/Game
2.75
1.25
Conceded/Game
1.00
25%
Win Rate
50%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Heerenveen
Home form
D
W
L
L
D
1W 2D 2L in last 5 at home
1 of these match from last season.
0.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
2/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
3/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Excelsior
Away form
W
W
W
D
D
Unbeaten in last 5 away
1 of these match from last season.
2.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Heerenveen Wins
2
Draws
1
Excelsior Wins
2
Avg Goals
2.4
Excelsior1 – 2Heerenveen
Heerenveen2 – 1Excelsior
Excelsior3 – 0Heerenveen
Heerenveen0 – 3Excelsior
Heerenveen0 – 0Excelsior
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Heerenveenvs
Excelsior
Recent Scoring Profile
1.30
Goals scored / game
2.20
1.40
Goals conceded / game
1.40
5/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
9/10
4/10
Both Teams Scored
8/10
4/10
Failed to Score
0/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 5 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 66.0%→Latest 66.0%±0.0 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 65.0%→Latest 65.0%±0.0 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
3 of Heerenveen's 10 matches and 3 of Excelsior's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?