PSV Eindhoven vs Heerenveen Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Philips Stadion
Fri 09 Oct 2026 · 19:00 UK
Latest Odds
Home Win
1.23
Draw
7.42
Away Win
8.73
Match Prediction
Data favours
PSV Eindhoven
PSV Eindhoven rate stronger in recent form, attack and head-to-head; defence is closely matched, giving PSV Eindhoven a slight edge.
Leads 3 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
PSV Eindhoven stronger
HomeAway
Attack
PSV Eindhoven stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Closely matched
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
PSV Eindhoven stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
PSV Eindhoven have enjoyed a perfect record at home across their last five outings with four wins and no defeats, while Heerenveen sit on just a solitary victory from the same number of away fixtures. The hosts have found the net in every one of their last five home matches yet have failed to keep a clean sheet during that identical sample period. PSV Eindhoven rate stronger on form, attack and head-to-head, while defence is closely matched. PSV Eindhoven won the most recent meeting 3-1 on 21 February 2026, having won 4 of the last 5 encounters to Heerenveen's 1, with 0 ending level; the fixture has averaged 3.6 goals per meeting. Over the 21-day comparison window, PSV Eindhoven's implied win probability has fallen by 0.2 percentage points, while Heerenveen's implied win probability has risen by 0.8 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison gives PSV Eindhoven a slight edge.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
5
PSV Eindhoven unbeaten run
13
PSV Eindhoven points from last 5 matches
Team Availability
PSV Eindhoven
No current absences reported
Heerenveen
No current absences reported
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Slight shift towards Heerenveen
Heerenveen's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Heerenveen win as more likely than it did 21 days ago. This is a modest move, not a major change in market opinion. PSV Eindhoven remain the clear market favourite.
Movement strength: Slight
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
PSV Eindhoven win
Latest market chance 75.9%
Steady
Market view unchanged
76.1% → 75.9%
−0.2 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 13.8%
Steady
Market view unchanged
14.3% → 13.8%
−0.5 pts
Heerenveen win
Latest market chance 10.3%
Slight shortening
Market chance increased
9.5% → 10.3%
+0.8 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
PSV Eindhoven
Draw
Heerenveen
4 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 21 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
PSV EindhovenHeerenveen
Season Profile
This season
3rd
League Position
10th
7
Games Played
7
2.29
Points/Game
1.29
3.43
Goals/Game
1.57
1.43
Conceded/Game
1.29
21.0
Shots/Game
16.0
8.4
Shots on Target
6.0
Home vs Away Context
PSV Eindhoven at home (3 matches) vs Heerenveen away (3 matches)
2.33
Points/Game
1.67
3.67
Goals/Game
2.67
1.33
Conceded/Game
1.33
67%
Win Rate
33%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
PSV Eindhoven
Home form
W
W
D
W
W
Unbeaten in last 5 at home
2 of these matches from last season.
4.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Heerenveen
Away form
L
L
D
D
W
1W 2D 2L in last 5 away
2 of these matches from last season.
2.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
PSV Eindhoven Wins
4
Draws
0
Heerenveen Wins
1
Avg Goals
3.6
PSV Eindhoven3 – 1Heerenveen
Heerenveen0 – 2PSV Eindhoven
PSV Eindhoven2 – 1Heerenveen
Heerenveen1 – 0PSV Eindhoven
Heerenveen0 – 8PSV Eindhoven
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
PSV Eindhovenvs
Heerenveen
Recent Scoring Profile
3.50
Goals scored / game
1.30
1.40
Goals conceded / game
1.40
10/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
5/10
10/10
Both Teams Scored
4/10
0/10
Failed to Score
4/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 6 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 78.2%→Latest 80.6%+2.4 pts
Notable move towards 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 63.2%→Latest 66.4%+3.2 pts
Strong move towards both teams scoring
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
3 of PSV Eindhoven's 10 matches and 3 of Heerenveen's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?