Twente vs PSV Eindhoven Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis

Archived Result — stats and prediction shown as they stood before kickoff
De Grolsch Veste
Sun 20 Sep 2026 · 13:30 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
3.02
Draw
4.11
Away Win
2.18
Match Report
Full Time
3 – 2
Match Events ?
Twente
PSV Eindhoven
Younes Taha El Idrissi ⚽
14'
26'
⚽ Guus Til (Mauro Júnior)
29'
⚽ Guus Til (Paul Wanner)
Wout Weghorst 🟨
43'
60'
🟨 Ruben van Bommel
66'
🟨 Ivan Perišić
Wout Weghorst (Daan Rots) ⚽
79'
Daouda Weidmann (Max Bruns) ⚽
83'
Match Statistics ?
40%
Ball Possession
60%
21
Total Shots
11
5
Shots on Goal
4
6
Corner Kicks
5
10
Fouls
12
1
Yellow Cards
2
0
Red Cards
0
0
Offsides
1
2
Goalkeeper Saves
2
Starting Lineups
Twente (4-2-3-1)
L. Unnerstall
B. van Rooij
M. Bruns
R. Pröpper
R. Nijstad
R. Zerrouki
D. Weidmann
F. Thorvaldsen
Y. Taha
S. Ørjasæter
W. Weghorst
PSV Eindhoven (4-2-3-1)
M. Kovář
S. Dest
L. Geertruida
A. Obispo
Mauro Júnior
K. Sano
P. Wanner
I. Perišić
G. Til
R. van Bommel
R. Pepi
Player Ratings ?
Twente
W. WeghorstF8.2
D. WeidmannM8.2
M. BrunsD7.2
PSV Eindhoven
G. TilM7.9
Mauro JúniorD6.9
P. WannerM6.8
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Data favours
PSV Eindhoven
PSV Eindhoven rate stronger in recent form, attack and head-to-head; Twente edge defence, giving PSV Eindhoven a slight edge.
Leads 3 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
PSV Eindhoven stronger
HomeAway
Attack
PSV Eindhoven stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Twente slightly stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
PSV Eindhoven stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Both sides enter this Eredivisie clash with identical recent records, as PSV Eindhoven have secured four wins and a single draw from their last five away outings, while Twente have matched that unbeaten run with four victories and one draw in their corresponding home sample. Twente have scored in every one of their last five home matches yet have also kept three clean sheets during the same period, suggesting a home form that balances frequent offensive output with periods of defensive solidity. Squad selection remains a key consideration for Twente, who face two confirmed absences ahead of kickoff, whereas PSV Eindhoven must manage six confirmed out-counts in their own squad preparations for this fixture. PSV Eindhoven rate stronger on form, attack and head-to-head, while Twente hold a slight advantage in defence. PSV Eindhoven won the most recent meeting 5-1 on 17 May 2026, having won 5 of the last 5 encounters to Twente's 0, with 0 ending level; the fixture has averaged 4.0 goals per meeting. Over the 9-day comparison window, Twente's implied win probability has risen by 1.7 percentage points, while PSV Eindhoven's implied win probability has fallen by 2.4 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison gives PSV Eindhoven a slight edge.
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Market View
?
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Notable shift away from PSV Eindhoven
PSV Eindhoven's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a PSV Eindhoven win as less likely than it did 9 days ago.
Movement strength: Notable
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Twente win
Latest market chance 33.4%
Notable shortening
Market chance increased
31.7% → 33.4%
+1.7 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 23.8%
Steady
Market view unchanged
23.1% → 23.8%
+0.7 pts
PSV Eindhoven win
Latest market chance 42.8%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
45.2% → 42.8%
−2.4 pts
Movement over time
Change vs first comparable snapshot
10 snapshots
+3+1.50−1.5Sep 11Sep 12Sep 13Sep 14Sep 15Sep 16Sep 17Sep 18Sep 19Sep 20
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Twente
Draw
PSV Eindhoven
4 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 9 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
Twente
PSV Eindhoven
Season Profile
This season
5th
League Position
1st
6
Games Played
6
2.17
Points/Game
2.67
2.00
Goals/Game
3.67
0.83
Conceded/Game
1.17
21.6
Shots/Game
21.0
7.6
Shots on Target
8.4
Home vs Away Context
Twente at home (4 matches) vs PSV Eindhoven away (4 matches)
3.00
Points/Game
2.25
2.25
Goals/Game
3.25
0.75
Conceded/Game
1.50
100%
Win Rate
75%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Twente
Home form
D
W
W
W
W
Won 4 straight at home
2 of these matches from last season.
2.2
Goals scored
per match
0.4
Goals conceded
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
3/5
Clean
sheets
VS
PSV Eindhoven
Away form
D
W
W
W
W
Won 4 straight away
2 of these matches from last season.
3.4
Goals scored
per match
1.2
Goals conceded
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Twente Wins
0
Draws
0
PSV Eindhoven Wins
5
Avg Goals
4.0
2026-05-172025-2026
PSV Eindhoven5 – 1Twente
2025-08-172025-2026
Twente0 – 2PSV Eindhoven
2025-04-242024-2025
Twente1 – 3PSV Eindhoven
2024-12-062024-2025
PSV Eindhoven6 – 1Twente
2024-03-172023-2024
PSV Eindhoven1 – 0Twente
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Twente
vs
PSV Eindhoven
Recent Scoring Profile
2.00
Goals scored / game
3.90
1.30
Goals conceded / game
1.20
6/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
10/10
6/10
Both Teams Scored
10/10
1/10
Failed to Score
0/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
88.1%
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
74.1%
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
56.1%
BTTSBoth teams score
73.7%
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 72.5%→Latest 73.5%+1.0 pts
Slight move towards 3+ goals
An earlier move in the opposite direction has partly reversed.
Sep 11Sep 12Sep 13Sep 14Sep 15Sep 16Sep 17Sep 18Sep 19Sep 20
3 common bookmakers · first comparable 9 days before kickoff
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 72.4%→Latest 73.6%+1.2 pts
Slight move towards both teams scoring
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Sep 11Sep 12Sep 13Sep 14Sep 15Sep 16Sep 17Sep 18Sep 19Sep 20
4 common bookmakers · first comparable 9 days before kickoff
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
4 of Twente's 10 matches and 4 of PSV Eindhoven's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
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