Utrecht vs Willem II Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Stadion Galgenwaard
Sun 11 Oct 2026 · 11:15 UK
Latest Odds
Home Win
1.47
Draw
4.77
Away Win
5.96
Match Prediction
Data favours
Utrecht
Utrecht rate stronger in recent form, attack and head-to-head; defence is closely matched, giving Utrecht an edge.
Leads 3 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Utrecht stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Utrecht stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Closely matched
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Utrecht stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Willem II have drawn three times and suffered two defeats in their last five away outings, while Utrecht have managed just a solitary victory from five home matches across the same period. Utrecht have found the net in all five of their recent home fixtures but have failed to keep a single clean sheet during that identical run. Utrecht rate stronger on form, attack and head-to-head, while defence is closely matched. Utrecht won the most recent meeting 3-2 on 9 March 2025, having won 4 of the last 5 encounters to Willem II's 1, with 0 ending level; the fixture has averaged 4.8 goals per meeting. Over the 23-day comparison window, Utrecht's implied win probability has fallen by 3.8 percentage points, while Willem II's implied win probability has risen by 2.8 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison favours Utrecht.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
3/5
One-goal H2H results
3
Willem II points from last 5 matches
Team Availability
Utrecht
No current absences reported
Willem II
No current absences reported
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift away from Utrecht
Utrecht's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Utrecht win as less likely than it did 23 days ago.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Utrecht win
Latest market chance 62.8%
Strong drift
Market chance decreased
66.6% → 62.8%
−3.8 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 20.5%
Slight shortening
Market chance increased
19.5% → 20.5%
+1.0 pts
Willem II win
Latest market chance 16.7%
Notable shortening
Market chance increased
13.9% → 16.7%
+2.8 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Utrecht
Draw
Willem II
4 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 23 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
UtrechtWillem II
Season Profile
This season
12th
League Position
18th
8
Games Played
7
0.75
Points/Game
0.29
1.75
Goals/Game
0.86
3.38
Conceded/Game
2.86
10.7
Shots/Game
11.9
4.0
Shots on Target
2.7
Home vs Away Context
Utrecht at home (4 matches) vs Willem II away (3 matches)
0.50
Points/Game
0.33
2.00
Goals/Game
1.00
4.00
Conceded/Game
3.33
0%
Win Rate
0%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Utrecht
Home form
W
L
L
D
D
1W 2D 2L in last 5 at home
1 of these match from last season.
2.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
3.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Willem II
Away form
D
D
L
D
L
Winless in last 5 away
2 of these matches from last season.
1.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Utrecht Wins
4
Draws
0
Willem II Wins
1
Avg Goals
4.8
Willem II2 – 3Utrecht
Utrecht3 – 2Willem II
Willem II3 – 0Utrecht
Utrecht5 – 1Willem II
Utrecht3 – 2Willem II
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Utrechtvs
Willem II
Recent Scoring Profile
1.80
Goals scored / game
0.90
3.00
Goals conceded / game
2.50
9/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
7/10
9/10
Both Teams Scored
8/10
1/10
Failed to Score
2/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 6 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 66.0%→Latest 63.2%−2.8 pts
Notable move away from 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
The market is more cautious on 3+ goals than both teams' recent records.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 58.9%→Latest 59.2%+0.3 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
The market is more cautious on both teams scoring than both teams' recent records.
2 of Utrecht's 10 matches and 3 of Willem II's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?