Willem II vs Excelsior Head to Head, Prediction
Koning Willem II Stadion
Sat 05 Sep 2026 · 20:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.85
Draw
3.71
Away Win
2.33
Match Report
Full Time
0 – 3
Match Events ?
Willem II
Excelsior
8'
⚽ D. Garden (I. Yegoian)
34'
⚽ R. Meissen (S. Janssen)
Kasper Boogaard 🟨
51'
Jaden Slory 🟨
81'
85'
⚽ I. Yegoian (S. van Gassel)
87'
🟨 Nesto Groen
Match Statistics ?
59%
Ball Possession
41%
16
Total Shots
13
2
Shots on Goal
6
7
Corner Kicks
6
10
Fouls
14
2
Yellow Cards
1
1
Offsides
0
3
Goalkeeper Saves
2
Starting Lineups
Willem II (4-2-3-1)
M. Delanghe
H. ter Avest
F. Stam
M. Lemmens
N. Tjoe a On
K. Boogaard
C. Twigt
E. Gurbuz
U. van Aalst
J. Slory
D. Haen
Excelsior (5-4-1)
S. van Gassel
E. da Silva Moreira
R. Meissen
C. Widell
J. Plug
S. Janssen
A. Sliti
I. Yegoian
L. Hartjes
A. Thorsteinsson
D. Garden
Player Ratings ?
Willem II
Calvin TwigtM7.3
Nathan Tjoe-A-OnD7.2
Jaden SloryM7.2
Excelsior
Irakli YegoianM9.7
Casper WidellD8.7
Rick MeissenD8.6
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Data favours
Excelsior
Excelsior rate stronger across every major category. They lead recent form, attack, defence and head-to-head, giving Excelsior a strong edge.
Leads 4 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Excelsior stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Excelsior stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Excelsior stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Excelsior stronger
HomeAway
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Little change in the market
The betting market's view of this match has barely moved since the earliest comparable snapshot, 5 days before kickoff.
Movement strength: Steady
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Willem II win
Latest market chance 33.1%
Steady
Market view unchanged
33.0% → 33.1%
+0.1 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 26.3%
Steady
Market view unchanged
26.3% → 26.3%
±0.0 pts
Excelsior win
Latest market chance 40.6%
Steady
Market view unchanged
40.7% → 40.6%
−0.1 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Willem II
Draw
Excelsior
6 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 5 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
Willem IIExcelsior
Season Profile
This season
15th
League Position
8th
3
Games Played
3
0.33
Points/Game
2.00
1.33
Goals/Game
2.33
3.33
Conceded/Game
1.00
11.9
Shots/Game
11.3
2.7
Shots on Target
4.7
Home vs Away Context
Willem II at home (4 matches) vs Excelsior away (4 matches)
0.25
Points/Game
2.00
0.75
Goals/Game
2.75
2.50
Conceded/Game
1.00
0%
Win Rate
50%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Willem II
Home form
L
L
L
L
D
Winless in last 5 at home
3 of these matches from last season.
1.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Excelsior
Away form
D
D
W
W
W
Won 3 straight away
4 of these matches from last season.
2.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Willem II Wins
1
Draws
2
Excelsior Wins
2
Avg Goals
2.8
Excelsior1 – 1Willem II
Willem II2 – 2Excelsior
Excelsior2 – 1Willem II
Willem II1 – 2Excelsior
Excelsior0 – 2Willem II
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Willem IIvs
Excelsior
Recent Scoring Profile
1.00
Goals scored / game
2.20
2.20
Goals conceded / game
1.30
7/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
7/10
9/10
Both Teams Scored
7/10
1/10
Failed to Score
1/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 5 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 56.8%→Latest 57.8%+1.0 pts
Slight move towards 3+ goals
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
The market is more cautious on 3+ goals than both teams' recent records.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 60.2%→Latest 60.9%+0.7 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
The market is more cautious on both teams scoring than both teams' recent records.
7 of Willem II's 10 matches and 7 of Excelsior's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?