Almeria vs Burgos Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
UD Almería Stadium
Sat 03 Oct 2026 · 15:15 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
1.59
Draw
4.06
Away Win
6.16
Match Report
Full Time
2 – 1
Match Events ?
Almeria
Burgos
Léo Baptistão 🟨
33'
37'
🟨 Brais Martínez
40'
⚽ Jon Karrikaburu (Javier Llabrés Exposito)
Marcos Luna 🟨
49'
74'
🟨 Alberto Dadie
77'
🟨 Pablo Galdames
Brian Cipenga (Sergio Arribas Calvo) ⚽
77'
Miguel De La Fuente ⚽
84'
Match Statistics ?
69%
Ball Possession
31%
25
Total Shots
9
8
Shots on Goal
4
8
Corner Kicks
3
15
Fouls
13
2
Yellow Cards
3
0
Red Cards
0
3
Goalkeeper Saves
6
Starting Lineups
Almeria (4-2-3-1)
Andrés Fernández
Marcos Luna
Chumi
F. Bonini
Leonardo Lelo
Mikel Vesga
Javi Muñoz
Léo Baptistão
Sergio Arribas
B. Cipenga
Thalys
Burgos (4-4-2)
Ander Cantero
Alberto Dadie
Oier Luengo
Saúl del Cerro
Brais Martínez
David González
José Gragera
Unai Vencedor
Javi Llabrés
Jon Karrikaburu
Curro Sánchez
Player Ratings ?
Almeria
B. CipengaM8.0
Sergio ArribasM7.7
Miguel de la FuenteF7.5
Burgos
Jon KarrikaburuF7.8
Ander CanteroG7.3
Javi LlabrésM6.9
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Almeria edge attack, Burgos edge recent form and head-to-head, defence is closely matched, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Burgos stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Almeria stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Closely matched
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Burgos stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Almeria have secured four victories from their last five home outings, while Burgos managed three wins in that same number of away fixtures. At the club's home venue, Almeria have found the net in five consecutive matches but have kept just two clean sheets during that identical sample period. Burgos rate stronger on form and head-to-head, while Almeria rate stronger on attack, while defence is closely matched. The most recent meeting, on 9 May 2026, ended level, with 1 of the last 5 encounters drawn overall; the fixture has averaged 2.2 goals per meeting. Over the 5-day comparison window, Almeria's implied win probability has risen by 2.3 percentage points, while Burgos's implied win probability has fallen by 1.3 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Notable shift towards Almeria
Almeria's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Almeria win as more likely than it did 5 days ago.
Movement strength: Notable
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Almeria win
Latest market chance 59.5%
Notable shortening
Market chance increased
57.2% → 59.5%
+2.3 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 23.7%
Slight drift
Market chance decreased
24.7% → 23.7%
−1.0 pts
Burgos win
Latest market chance 16.8%
Slight drift
Market chance decreased
18.1% → 16.8%
−1.3 pts
7 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 5 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
AlmeriaBurgos
Season Profile
This season
4th
League Position
5th
7
Games Played
7
2.14
Points/Game
2.00
1.57
Goals/Game
1.57
0.57
Conceded/Game
1.00
13.5
Shots/Game
9.8
4.2
Shots on Target
2.9
Home vs Away Context
Almeria at home (5 matches) vs Burgos away (5 matches)
3.00
Points/Game
0.80
2.40
Goals/Game
0.80
0.80
Conceded/Game
1.20
100%
Win Rate
20%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Almeria
Home form
W
L
W
W
W
Won 3 straight at home
2 of these matches from last season.
2.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Burgos
Away form
W
W
L
D
W
Won 3 of last 5 away
2 of these matches from last season.
1.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
3/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Almeria Wins
2
Draws
1
Burgos Wins
2
Avg Goals
2.2
Burgos0 – 0Almeria
Almeria1 – 2Burgos
Burgos3 – 1Almeria
Almeria2 – 0Burgos
Burgos0 – 2Almeria
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Almeriavs
Burgos
Recent Scoring Profile
1.50
Goals scored / game
1.50
0.80
Goals conceded / game
0.70
4/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
4/10
3/10
Both Teams Scored
4/10
3/10
Failed to Score
2/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 49.1%→Latest 50.6%+1.5 pts
Notable move towards 3+ goals
The market is pricing a higher chance of 3+ goals than either team's recent rate.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 49.2%→Latest 49.6%+0.4 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
The market is pricing a higher chance of both teams scoring than either team's recent rate.
3 of Almeria's 10 matches and 3 of Burgos's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?