Ceuta vs Sociedad B Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Estadio Municipal Alfonso Murube
Sat 26 Sep 2026 · 13:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.57
Draw
3.57
Away Win
2.70
Match Report
Full Time
3 – 1
Match Events ?
Ceuta
Sociedad B
33'
🟥 Arkaitz Mariezkurrena
44'
🟨 Kazunari Kita
48'
⚽ Kazunari Kita
66'
🟥 Kazunari Kita
Carlos Hernández (Kialy Abdoul Kone) ⚽
67'
José Juan Romero Gil 🟨
68'
71'
🟨 Gorka Carrera Zarranz
José Matos 🟨
71'
Chidiebere Gabriel Okoro 🟨
73'
Carlos Hernández (Kialy Abdoul Kone) ⚽
81'
89'
🟨 Unax Agote
Kuki Zalazar 🟨
90'
90+7'
🟨 Jon Balda
Jordi Escobar (Abraham Bueno Espinosa) ⚽
90+9'
Match Statistics ?
70%
Ball Possession
30%
25
Total Shots
5
8
Shots on Goal
2
9
Corner Kicks
2
10
Fouls
24
3
Yellow Cards
3
0
Red Cards
2
3
Offsides
0
1
Goalkeeper Saves
5
Starting Lineups
Ceuta (4-3-3)
Guille Vallejo
Toni Abad
Carlos Hernández
Albert Caparrós
José Matos
A. Tuhami
Joaquín
Chidiebere Gabriel Okoro
K. Koné
Kuki
Alejandro Camacho Ramírez
Sociedad B (4-4-2)
Aitor Fraga
Jon Garro
Iker Ropero
K. Kita
Jon Balda
Dani Díaz
Tomás Carbonell
A. Lebarbier
Alex Garcia
Gorka Carrera
Arkaitz Mariezkurrena
Player Ratings ?
Ceuta
K. KonéF8.6
Carlos HernándezD8.3
Jordi EscobarF7.5
Sociedad B
Javier SoroetaF6.6
Aitor FragaG6.5
Iker RoperoD6.4
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Ceuta edge head-to-head, Sociedad B edge recent form, attack and defence, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Sociedad B stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Sociedad B stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Sociedad B slightly stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Ceuta stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Sociedad B arrives with an encouraging recent record away from home, securing three wins and a draw in their last five outings, while Ceuta have struggled to find consistency at this venue, managing just a single victory alongside one draw and three defeats over the same span. Ceuta have found the net in three of their last five matches at home but remain vulnerable defensively, having kept only a solitary clean sheet during that identical period. Sociedad B rate stronger on form and attack, with a slight advantage in defence, while Ceuta rate stronger on head-to-head. The most recent meeting, on 10 April 2026, ended level, with 1 of the last 2 encounters drawn overall; the fixture has averaged 2.0 goals per meeting. Over the 5-day comparison window, Ceuta's implied win probability has fallen by 3.8 percentage points, while Sociedad B's implied win probability has risen by 3.6 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
5
Ceuta losing run
46%
Ceuta yellow cards after 75'
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift away from Ceuta
Ceuta's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Ceuta win as less likely than it did 5 days ago.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Ceuta win
Latest market chance 37.8%
Strong drift
Market chance decreased
41.6% → 37.8%
−3.8 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 27.0%
Steady
Market view unchanged
26.8% → 27.0%
+0.2 pts
Sociedad B win
Latest market chance 35.2%
Strong shortening
Market chance increased
31.6% → 35.2%
+3.6 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Ceuta
Draw
Sociedad B
5 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 5 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
CeutaSociedad B
Season Profile
This season
22nd
League Position
12th
6
Games Played
6
0.17
Points/Game
1.33
0.50
Goals/Game
1.33
2.67
Conceded/Game
1.17
13.6
Shots/Game
10.8
3.6
Shots on Target
3.5
Home vs Away Context
Ceuta at home (5 matches) vs Sociedad B away (5 matches)
1.40
Points/Game
1.40
1.40
Goals/Game
1.80
1.40
Conceded/Game
2.00
40%
Win Rate
40%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Ceuta
Home form
L
W
L
L
D
Lost 3 of last 5 at home
2 of these matches from last season.
0.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Sociedad B
Away form
W
L
W
D
W
Won 3 of last 5 away
2 of these matches from last season.
2.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Ceuta Wins
1
Draws
1
Sociedad B Wins
0
Avg Goals
2.0
Ceuta0 – 0Sociedad B
Sociedad B1 – 3Ceuta
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Ceutavs
Sociedad B
Recent Scoring Profile
0.80
Goals scored / game
1.40
2.10
Goals conceded / game
1.40
4/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
6/10
5/10
Both Teams Scored
8/10
3/10
Failed to Score
2/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 54.4%→Latest 54.0%−0.4 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 59.1%→Latest 59.2%+0.1 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
4 of Ceuta's 10 matches and 4 of Sociedad B's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?