Ceuta vs Valladolid Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Estadio Municipal Alfonso Murube
Sun 20 Sep 2026 · 15:15 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.90
Draw
3.36
Away Win
2.56
Match Report
Full Time
1 – 1
Match Events ?
Ceuta
Valladolid
12'
🟨 Juan Miguel Latasa
Carlos Hernández 🟨
31'
53'
⚽ Juan Miguel Latasa (Julien Ponceau)
79'
🟨 Alejandro Balboa Bandeira
Omar Sadik 🟨
85'
86'
🟨 Iván Garriel
87'
🟥 Alejandro Balboa Bandeira
Omar Sadik 🟥
90+1'
Carlos Hernández (Jordi Escobar) ⚽
90+11'
90+12'
🟨 Pablo Tomeo Félez
Match Statistics ?
44%
Ball Possession
56%
12
Total Shots
11
3
Shots on Goal
6
3
Corner Kicks
3
14
Fouls
17
1
Yellow Cards
3
1
Red Cards
1
3
Offsides
0
5
Goalkeeper Saves
2
Starting Lineups
Ceuta (4-3-3)
Guille Vallejo
Arick Betancourt
Carlos Hernández
Albert Caparrós
José Matos
Álex Meléndez
Mawuli Mensah
Chidiebere Gabriel Okoro
E. Sevikyan
Kuki
Alejandro Camacho Ramírez
Valladolid (4-2-3-1)
Álvaro Aceves
Iván Alejo
Miguel Rubio
David Torres
Iván Garriel
S. Jurić
J. Ponceau
Luis Chacón
Víctor Fernández
Adrian Arnuncio
Juanmi Latasa
Player Ratings ?
Ceuta
Jordi EscobarF7.0
Carlos HernándezD6.9
Guille VallejoG6.8
Valladolid
J. PonceauM7.7
Iván GarrielD7.5
Juanmi LatasaF7.4
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Ceuta edge recent form and attack, Valladolid edge defence and head-to-head, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Ceuta slightly stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Ceuta stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Valladolid slightly stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Valladolid stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Valladolid have struggled away from home with just one draw from their last five outings, while Ceuta have managed a solitary win and another stalemate during that same five-match run at the venue. Ceuta have found the net in three of their last five home matches but have only kept one clean sheet in that identical sample period. Ceuta rate stronger on attack, with a slight advantage in form, while Valladolid rate stronger on head-to-head, with a slight advantage in defence. Valladolid won the most recent meeting 3-0 on 17 January 2026, having won 2 of the last 2 encounters to Ceuta's 0, with 0 ending level; the fixture has averaged 3.0 goals per meeting. Over the 6-day comparison window, Ceuta's implied win probability has risen by 0.1 percentage points, while Valladolid's implied win probability has fallen by 0.9 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
5
Ceuta losing run
1
Valladolid points from last 5 matches
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Slight shift towards the draw
the draw's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a draw as more likely than it did 6 days ago. This is a modest move, not a major change in market opinion. Valladolid remain the clear market favourite.
Movement strength: Slight
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Ceuta win
Latest market chance 33.6%
Steady
Market view unchanged
33.5% → 33.6%
+0.1 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 28.8%
Slight shortening
Market chance increased
27.9% → 28.8%
+0.9 pts
Valladolid win
Latest market chance 37.7%
Slight drift
Market chance decreased
38.6% → 37.7%
−0.9 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Ceuta
Draw
Valladolid
6 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 6 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
CeutaValladolid
Season Profile
This season
22nd
League Position
18th
5
Games Played
5
0.00
Points/Game
0.80
0.40
Goals/Game
0.40
3.00
Conceded/Game
1.40
13.6
Shots/Game
12.1
3.6
Shots on Target
4.4
Home vs Away Context
Ceuta at home (5 matches) vs Valladolid away (5 matches)
1.40
Points/Game
0.60
1.40
Goals/Game
0.80
1.40
Conceded/Game
1.40
40%
Win Rate
0%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Ceuta
Home form
D
L
W
L
L
Lost 3 of last 5 at home
3 of these matches from last season.
0.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Valladolid
Away form
L
L
L
L
D
Winless in last 5 away
2 of these matches from last season.
0.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
2/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Ceuta Wins
0
Draws
0
Valladolid Wins
2
Avg Goals
3.0
Ceuta0 – 3Valladolid
Valladolid3 – 0Ceuta
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Ceutavs
Valladolid
Recent Scoring Profile
0.90
Goals scored / game
0.60
2.10
Goals conceded / game
1.60
5/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
3/10
5/10
Both Teams Scored
3/10
3/10
Failed to Score
5/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 50.3%→Latest 47.5%−2.8 pts
Notable move away from 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 55.6%→Latest 53.3%−2.3 pts
Notable move away from both teams scoring
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
5 of Ceuta's 10 matches and 5 of Valladolid's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?