Girona vs Castellon Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Estadio Municipal de Montilivi
Sat 12 Sep 2026 · 17:30 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.22
Draw
3.37
Away Win
3.42
Match Report
Full Time
1 – 2
Match Events ?
Girona
Castellon
Holmes Júnior Zamorano Muñoz ⚽
7'
Abel Ruíz 🟨
45+3'
Abel Ruíz 🟥
52'
Carles Pérez 🟨
73'
76'
🟨 Alberto Jiménez
81'
⚽ Agustín Sienra
86'
⚽ Álvaro García Arana
88'
🟨 Matías Orozco
Izan González 🟨
90+4'
Oleksandr Pyshchur 🟨
90+9'
Match Statistics ?
39%
Ball Possession
61%
8
Total Shots
18
5
Shots on Goal
9
4
Corner Kicks
11
9
Fouls
10
3
Yellow Cards
2
1
Red Cards
0
0
Offsides
2
7
Goalkeeper Saves
4
Starting Lineups
Girona (4-2-3-1)
P. Gazzaniga
Alejandro Francés
David López
Holmes Zamorano
Álex Moreno
Fran Beltrán
I. Gonzalez
Y. Asprilla
Abel Ruiz
V. Vanat
Bryan Gil
Castellon (4-4-2)
R. Matthys
Juanjo Nieto
Alberto Jiménez
A. Sienra
Lucas Alcázar
Rodrigo Miguel Ferreira Rêgo
M. Orozco
Barri
F. Castillo
Israel Suero
Ousmane Camara
Player Ratings ?
Girona
P. GazzanigaG8.2
Holmes ZamoranoD7.3
David LópezD7.0
Castellon
A. SienraD7.9
Varo GarcíaF7.8
R. MatthysG7.5
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Girona edge head-to-head, Castellon edge recent form and defence, attack is closely matched, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Castellon stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Closely matched
HomeAway
Defence
Castellon stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Girona stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Castellon have secured three wins and a draw from their last five away outings, while Girona mirror that exact tally of three victories and a single stalemate in their last five home fixtures. Girona have found the net in four of their last five matches at home, yet they have kept just two clean sheets during that same period. Castellon rate stronger on form and defence, while Girona rate stronger on head-to-head, while attack is closely matched. This is the first time these two sides have met in the league since 2021. The market has remained broadly steady over the 5-day comparison window, with little change in either side's implied win probability. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Slight shift away from Girona
Girona's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Girona win as less likely than it did 5 days ago. This is a modest move, not a major change in market opinion.
Movement strength: Slight
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Girona win
Latest market chance 43.4%
Slight drift
Market chance decreased
44.4% → 43.4%
−1.0 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 27.7%
Slight shortening
Market chance increased
26.7% → 27.7%
+1.0 pts
Castellon win
Latest market chance 28.9%
Steady
Market view unchanged
28.9% → 28.9%
±0.0 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Girona
Draw
Castellon
9 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 5 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
GironaCastellon
Season Profile
This season
6th
League Position
1st
4
Games Played
4
1.75
Points/Game
2.50
2.25
Goals/Game
1.25
1.25
Conceded/Game
0.25
15.1
Shots/Game
14.9
5.1
Shots on Target
5.1
Home vs Away Context
Girona at home (6 matches) vs Castellon away (5 matches)
1.83
Points/Game
3.00
1.83
Goals/Game
1.80
0.83
Conceded/Game
0.40
50%
Win Rate
100%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Girona
Home form
W
L
W
D
W
Won 3 of last 5 at home
3 of these matches from last season.
2.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Castellon
Away form
D
W
L
W
W
Won 3 of last 5 away
3 of these matches from last season.
1.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Girona Wins
5
Draws
0
Castellon Wins
0
Avg Goals
1.8
Girona2 – 1Castellon
Castellon0 – 1Girona
Castellon0 – 1Girona
Girona1 – 0Castellon
Castellon1 – 2Girona
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Gironavs
Castellon
Recent Scoring Profile
1.30
Goals scored / game
1.30
1.10
Goals conceded / game
0.80
4/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
3/10
4/10
Both Teams Scored
6/10
3/10
Failed to Score
1/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 55.3%→Latest 57.8%+2.5 pts
Notable move towards 3+ goals
An earlier move in the opposite direction has partly reversed.
The market is pricing a higher chance of 3+ goals than either team's recent rate.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 59.1%→Latest 61.0%+1.9 pts
Notable move towards both teams scoring
An earlier move in the opposite direction has partly reversed.
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
6 of Girona's 10 matches and 6 of Castellon's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?