Leganes vs Castellon Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Municipal de Butarque
Mon 28 Sep 2026 · 19:30 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
3.29
Draw
3.39
Away Win
2.30
Match Report
Full Time
0 – 2
Match Events ?
Leganes
Castellon
Álvaro Morata 🟨
20'
24'
⚽ Israel Suero Fernández
28'
🟨 Íñigo Córdoba
Naim Garcia 🟨
30'
47'
⚽ Adam Jakobsen (Israel Suero Fernández)
Marvelous Antolín Garzón 🟨
58'
82'
🟥 Jeremy Mellot
Álex Millán •
84'
Yassine Kechta 🟨
89'
Rubén Pulido 🟨
90+1'
Unax del Cura 🟨
90+5'
Match Statistics ?
44%
Ball Possession
56%
15
Total Shots
22
2
Shots on Goal
7
4
Corner Kicks
4
17
Fouls
11
6
Yellow Cards
1
0
Red Cards
1
3
Offsides
0
5
Goalkeeper Saves
2
Starting Lineups
Leganes (3-5-2)
L. Zidane
Lalo Aguilar
Javi Montero
Marvel
Naim García
Z. Buurmeester
Miguel Atienza
Y. Kechta
Álex Sancris
P. Soko
Álvaro Morata
Castellon (3-4-2-1)
R. Matthys
J. Mellot
Alberto Jiménez
A. Sienra
Juanjo Nieto
Álvaro Martín
Barri
Iñigo Córdoba
Israel Suero
A. Jakobsen
Ousmane Camara
Player Ratings ?
Leganes
L. ZidaneG6.9
Lalo AguilarD6.9
Javi MonteroD6.7
Castellon
Israel SueroM8.8
A. JakobsenM8.2
Álvaro MartínM7.2
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Data favours
Castellon
Castellon rate stronger across every major category. They lead recent form, attack, defence and head-to-head, giving Castellon a slight edge.
Leads 4 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Castellon stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Castellon stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Castellon stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Castellon stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Castellon boast an impressive run away from home with four victories in their last five outings, while Leganes have secured three wins and one draw during their recent home fixtures. Leganes have found the net in four of their last five home matches but have also managed to keep a clean sheet on three occasions during that same period. Castellon rate stronger on form, attack, defence and head-to-head. Castellon won the most recent meeting 2-0 on 16 January 2026, having won 3 of the last 4 encounters to Leganes's 0, with 1 ending level; the fixture has averaged 1.25 goals per meeting. Over the 5-day comparison window, Leganes's implied win probability has fallen by 0.5 percentage points, while Castellon's implied win probability has risen by 0.9 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison gives Castellon a slight edge.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
50%
Leganes yellow cards after 75'
12
Castellon points from last 5 matches
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Slight shift towards Castellon
Castellon's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Castellon win as more likely than it did 5 days ago. This is a modest move, not a major change in market opinion.
Movement strength: Slight
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Leganes win
Latest market chance 30.1%
Steady
Market view unchanged
30.6% → 30.1%
−0.5 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 28.0%
Steady
Market view unchanged
28.3% → 28.0%
−0.3 pts
Castellon win
Latest market chance 42.0%
Slight shortening
Market chance increased
41.1% → 42.0%
+0.9 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Leganes
Draw
Castellon
7 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 5 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
LeganesCastellon
Season Profile
This season
10th
League Position
1st
7
Games Played
7
1.57
Points/Game
2.71
0.86
Goals/Game
2.00
1.00
Conceded/Game
0.29
11.1
Shots/Game
14.9
3.8
Shots on Target
5.1
Home vs Away Context
Leganes at home (4 matches) vs Castellon away (5 matches)
1.50
Points/Game
3.00
1.00
Goals/Game
1.80
1.50
Conceded/Game
0.40
50%
Win Rate
100%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Leganes
Home form
D
W
W
W
L
Won 3 of last 5 at home
2 of these matches from last season.
1.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
3/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Castellon
Away form
L
W
W
W
W
Won 4 straight away
1 of these match from last season.
1.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Leganes Wins
0
Draws
1
Castellon Wins
4
Avg Goals
1.4
Leganes0 – 2Castellon
Castellon2 – 0Leganes
Leganes0 – 1Castellon
Leganes0 – 0Castellon
Castellon2 – 0Leganes
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Leganesvs
Castellon
Recent Scoring Profile
0.70
Goals scored / game
1.90
1.00
Goals conceded / game
0.70
2/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
5/10
2/10
Both Teams Scored
5/10
5/10
Failed to Score
1/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 51.3%→Latest 50.9%−0.4 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 56.6%→Latest 56.6%±0.0 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
The market is pricing a higher chance of both teams scoring than either team's recent rate.
3 of Leganes's 10 matches and 3 of Castellon's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?