Ath Madrid vs Osasuna Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Riyadh Air Metropolitano
Wed 16 Sep 2026 · 18:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
1.40
Draw
4.97
Away Win
8.31
Match Report
Full Time
4 – 0
Match Events ?
Ath Madrid
Osasuna
J. David ⚽
24'
Ademola Lookman 🟨
50'
Lee Kang-In (J. David) ⚽
54'
R. Le Normand ⚽
63'
A. Baena (J. Cardoso) ⚽
82'
86'
🟨 Rubén García
90+3'
🟨 Abel Bretones
Match Statistics ?
68%
Ball Possession
32%
27
Total Shots
3
11
Shots on Goal
1
8
Corner Kicks
0
7
Fouls
12
1
Yellow Cards
2
1
Offsides
1
1
Goalkeeper Saves
7
Starting Lineups
Ath Madrid (4-4-2)
J. Oblak
M. Llorente
C. Romero
R. Le Normand
A. Grimaldo
Lee Kang-In
Koke
J. Cardoso
A. Baena
J. David
A. Lookman
Osasuna (5-4-1)
A. Fernandez
I. Arguibide
R. Yeboah
F. Boyomo
U. Santos
A. Bretones
J. Dubasin
L. Torro
A. Osambela
R. Moro
R. Garcia
Player Ratings ?
Ath Madrid
Kang-in LeeM9.2
Alex BaenaM8.7
Robin Le NormandD8.2
Osasuna
Aitor FernándezG7.9
Enzo BoyomoD6.9
Romain Del CastilloF6.7
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Data favours
Ath Madrid
Ath Madrid rate stronger across every major category. They lead recent form, attack, defence and head-to-head, giving Ath Madrid a slight edge.
Leads 4 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Ath Madrid stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Ath Madrid stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Ath Madrid stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Ath Madrid stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Ath Madrid have secured three victories and a draw in their last five home outings, whereas Osasuna have managed only a solitary win from four defeats away from home during that same span. The hosts have found the net in four of their last five matches at this venue while also keeping a clean sheet twice in that identical sample period. Ath Madrid face potential disruption with one player confirmed out and three others listed as doubtful, while Osasuna carry four absentees but have no players marked as doubtful for the fixture. Ath Madrid rate stronger on form, attack, defence and head-to-head. Ath Madrid won the most recent meeting 2-1 on 12 May 2026, having won 3 of the last 5 encounters to Osasuna's 2, with 0 ending level; the fixture has averaged 2.4 goals per meeting. Over the 9-day comparison window, Ath Madrid's implied win probability has risen by 4.7 percentage points, while Osasuna's implied win probability has fallen by 2.7 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison gives Ath Madrid a slight edge.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
3/5
One-goal H2H results
50%
Osasuna yellow cards after 75'
3
Osasuna points from last 5 matches
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift towards Ath Madrid
Ath Madrid's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Ath Madrid win as more likely than it did 9 days ago.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Ath Madrid win
Latest market chance 69.1%
Strong shortening
Market chance increased
64.4% → 69.1%
+4.7 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 19.6%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
21.6% → 19.6%
−2.0 pts
Osasuna win
Latest market chance 11.2%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
13.9% → 11.2%
−2.7 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Ath Madrid
Draw
Osasuna
9 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 9 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
Ath MadridOsasuna
Season Profile
This season
5th
League Position
11th
5
Games Played
5
2.00
Points/Game
1.40
2.00
Goals/Game
1.00
1.20
Conceded/Game
1.60
17.0
Shots/Game
9.4
6.4
Shots on Target
3.9
Home vs Away Context
Ath Madrid at home (4 matches) vs Osasuna away (3 matches)
2.50
Points/Game
1.00
2.50
Goals/Game
1.33
0.75
Conceded/Game
3.33
75%
Win Rate
33%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Ath Madrid
Home form
W
L
W
W
D
Won 3 of last 5 at home
3 of these matches from last season.
1.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Osasuna
Away form
L
L
L
W
L
Lost 4 of last 5 away
3 of these matches from last season.
1.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Ath Madrid Wins
3
Draws
0
Osasuna Wins
2
Avg Goals
2.4
Osasuna1 – 2Ath Madrid
Ath Madrid1 – 0Osasuna
Osasuna2 – 0Ath Madrid
Ath Madrid1 – 0Osasuna
Ath Madrid1 – 4Osasuna
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Ath Madridvs
Osasuna
Recent Scoring Profile
1.60
Goals scored / game
1.00
1.30
Goals conceded / game
1.80
6/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
6/10
4/10
Both Teams Scored
6/10
2/10
Failed to Score
3/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 54.9%→Latest 55.1%+0.2 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 50.3%→Latest 47.3%−3.0 pts
Strong move away from both teams scoring
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
5 of Ath Madrid's 10 matches and 5 of Osasuna's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?