Malaga vs Villarreal Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Estadio La Rosaleda
Thu 17 Sep 2026 · 20:30 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
3.78
Draw
3.89
Away Win
1.95
Match Report
Full Time
1 – 3
Match Events ?
Malaga
Villarreal
Carlos Dotor (Juan Cruz) ⚽
12'
José Salinas 🟨
34'
40'
⚽ Alberto Moleiro (Ilias Akhomach Chakkour)
42'
🟨 Ilias Akhomach Chakkour
45+2'
⚽ Pape Gueye (Ayoze Pérez)
David Larrubia 🟨
68'
Einar Galilea 🟨
70'
Ramón Enríquez 🟨
79'
Alfonso Herrero 🟨
85'
86'
⚽ (P) Pape Gueye
Match Statistics ?
37%
Ball Possession
63%
5
Total Shots
16
1
Shots on Goal
7
4
Corner Kicks
8
17
Fouls
10
5
Yellow Cards
1
0
Red Cards
0
1
Offsides
3
3
Goalkeeper Saves
0
Starting Lineups
Malaga (4-1-4-1)
Alfonso Herrero
Puga
Ángel Recio
Einar Galilea
José Salinas
Izan Merino
Juan Cruz
David Larrubia
Carlos Dotor
Pablo Martínez
Chupe
Villarreal (4-4-2)
P. Gulácsi
A. Freeman
Pau Navarro
Renato Veiga
Sergi Cardona
Ilias Akhomach
N. Saliba
Santi Comesaña
T. Buchanan
Alberto Moleiro
Ayoze Pérez
Player Ratings ?
Malaga
Carlos DotorM7.3
ChupeF6.6
Ángel RecioD6.4
Villarreal
P. GueyeM8.2
Alberto MoleiroF8.2
Ilias AkhomachM7.5
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Malaga edge defence, Villarreal edge recent form, attack and head-to-head, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Villarreal stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Villarreal stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Malaga slightly stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Villarreal stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Villarreal arrive at this La Liga fixture with a mixed away record of three draws and two defeats from their last five outings, while Malaga have secured just one win alongside two draws and two losses in their corresponding home sample. At home, Malaga have scored in only two of their last five matches but have also kept two clean sheets during that same period. Malaga face significant squad concerns with six players out and one doubtful, whereas Villarreal have just one player unavailable with no doubts surrounding their remaining selection. Villarreal rate stronger on form, attack and head-to-head, while Malaga hold a slight advantage in defence. This is the first time these two sides have met in the league since 2018. Over the 6-day comparison window, Malaga's implied win probability has fallen by 2.5 percentage points, while Villarreal's implied win probability has risen by 2.7 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
70%
Villarreal yellow cards after 75'
3
Villarreal points from last 5 matches
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Notable shift towards Villarreal
Villarreal's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Villarreal win as more likely than it did 6 days ago.
Movement strength: Notable
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Malaga win
Latest market chance 25.6%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
28.1% → 25.6%
−2.5 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 25.2%
Steady
Market view unchanged
25.5% → 25.2%
−0.3 pts
Villarreal win
Latest market chance 49.2%
Notable shortening
Market chance increased
46.5% → 49.2%
+2.7 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Malaga
Draw
Villarreal
6 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 6 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
MalagaVillarreal
Season Profile
This season
18th
League Position
19th
5
Games Played
5
0.60
Points/Game
0.40
0.40
Goals/Game
1.40
1.60
Conceded/Game
2.00
10.0
Shots/Game
16.0
2.0
Shots on Target
6.6
Home vs Away Context
Malaga at home (3 matches) vs Villarreal away (4 matches)
0.67
Points/Game
1.25
0.67
Goals/Game
1.75
1.33
Conceded/Game
1.50
0%
Win Rate
25%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Malaga
Home form
W
L
L
D
D
1W 2D 2L in last 5 at home
3 of these matches from last season.
0.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
2/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Villarreal
Away form
D
L
D
D
L
Winless in last 5 away
2 of these matches from last season.
1.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Malaga Wins
1
Draws
1
Villarreal Wins
3
Avg Goals
1.6
Malaga1 – 0Villarreal
Villarreal2 – 0Malaga
Villarreal1 – 1Malaga
Malaga0 – 2Villarreal
Villarreal1 – 0Malaga
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Malagavs
Villarreal
Recent Scoring Profile
0.60
Goals scored / game
2.00
1.80
Goals conceded / game
1.80
4/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
7/10
4/10
Both Teams Scored
8/10
5/10
Failed to Score
2/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 57.2%→Latest 58.3%+1.1 pts
Slight move towards 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 59.6%→Latest 59.9%+0.3 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
5 of Malaga's 10 matches and 5 of Villarreal's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?