Osasuna vs Vallecano Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Estadio El Sadar
Sat 19 Sep 2026 · 13:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.58
Draw
3.29
Away Win
2.93
Match Report
Full Time
1 – 1
Match Events ?
Osasuna
Vallecano
Ante Budimir ⚽
16'
Asier Osambela 🟨
21'
24'
🟨 Pathé Ciss
50'
⚽ Sergio Camello (Adrià Pedrosa)
Jon Moncayola 🟨
66'
Sergio Herrera 🟨
77'
90+6'
🟨 Alexandre Zurawski
Match Statistics ?
37%
Ball Possession
63%
10
Total Shots
19
3
Shots on Goal
2
4
Corner Kicks
4
21
Fouls
13
3
Yellow Cards
2
0
Red Cards
0
2
Offsides
0
1
Goalkeeper Saves
2
Starting Lineups
Osasuna (5-4-1)
Aitor Fernández
Íñigo Arguibide
Asier Osambela
Catena
U. Santos
Diego Rico
Rubén García
Moncayola
Iker Muñoz
Kike Barja
A. Budimir
Vallecano (4-3-3)
E. Audero
A. Rațiu
Mujaid Sadick
F. Lejeune
Adrià Pedrosa
Unai López
P. Ciss
Óscar Valentín
Jorge de Frutos
Sergio Camello
Álvaro García
Player Ratings ?
Osasuna
A. BudimirF8.0
Raúl GarcíaF6.8
Iker MuñozM6.7
Vallecano
Sergio CamelloF8.0
Adrià PedrosaD7.0
F. LejeuneD6.9
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Osasuna edge defence and head-to-head, Vallecano edge recent form and attack, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Vallecano stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Vallecano stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Osasuna stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Osasuna stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Both sides arrive at this La Liga fixture with identical recent records of one win and one draw from their last five outings, though Vallecano's sample includes away matches while Osasuna's covers home games. Osasuna have found the net in three of their last five home matches but have also kept two clean sheets during that same span. The hosts face three confirmed absences and one doubtful case, whereas the visitors carry two certain outcasts alongside three players listed as doubtful for selection. Vallecano rate stronger on form and attack, while Osasuna rate stronger on defence and head-to-head. Osasuna won the most recent meeting 3-1 on 24 January 2026, having won 2 of the last 5 encounters to Vallecano's 2, with 1 ending level; the fixture has averaged 3.0 goals per meeting. Over the 5-day comparison window, Osasuna's implied win probability has fallen by 3.5 percentage points, while Vallecano's implied win probability has risen by 3.8 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift towards Vallecano
Vallecano's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Vallecano win as more likely than it did 5 days ago. Osasuna remain the clear market favourite.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Osasuna win
Latest market chance 38.0%
Strong drift
Market chance decreased
41.5% → 38.0%
−3.5 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 29.1%
Steady
Market view unchanged
29.4% → 29.1%
−0.3 pts
Vallecano win
Latest market chance 32.9%
Strong shortening
Market chance increased
29.1% → 32.9%
+3.8 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Osasuna
Draw
Vallecano
7 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 5 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
OsasunaVallecano
Season Profile
This season
13th
League Position
11th
6
Games Played
6
1.17
Points/Game
1.17
0.83
Goals/Game
1.67
2.00
Conceded/Game
2.50
9.4
Shots/Game
13.4
3.9
Shots on Target
4.6
Home vs Away Context
Osasuna at home (4 matches) vs Vallecano away (4 matches)
1.25
Points/Game
0.25
0.50
Goals/Game
1.25
0.75
Conceded/Game
3.00
25%
Win Rate
0%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Osasuna
Home form
L
L
D
W
L
Lost 3 of last 5 at home
2 of these matches from last season.
0.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Vallecano
Away form
D
W
L
L
L
Lost 3 straight away
2 of these matches from last season.
1.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Osasuna Wins
2
Draws
1
Vallecano Wins
2
Avg Goals
3.0
Vallecano1 – 3Osasuna
Osasuna2 – 0Vallecano
Osasuna1 – 1Vallecano
Vallecano3 – 1Osasuna
Vallecano2 – 1Osasuna
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Osasunavs
Vallecano
Recent Scoring Profile
0.90
Goals scored / game
1.60
2.00
Goals conceded / game
1.80
6/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
6/10
5/10
Both Teams Scored
9/10
4/10
Failed to Score
0/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 46.1%→Latest 47.0%+0.9 pts
Slight move towards 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
The market is more cautious on 3+ goals than both teams' recent records.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 51.4%→Latest 52.5%+1.1 pts
Slight move towards both teams scoring
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
4 of Osasuna's 10 matches and 4 of Vallecano's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?