Real Madrid vs Vallecano Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Sat 12 Sep 2026 · 20:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
1.12
Draw
9.99
Away Win
21.67
Match Report
Full Time
4 – 1
Match Events ?
Real Madrid
Vallecano
Kylian Mbappé ⚽ (P)
14'
Álvaro Fernández Carreras (Kylian Mbappé) ⚽
17'
Jude Bellingham (Vinícius) ⚽
35'
51'
⚽ Sergio Camello
76'
🟨 Pathé Ciss
Kylian Mbappé (Arda Güler) ⚽
90+1'
Match Statistics ?
56%
Ball Possession
44%
24
Total Shots
18
11
Shots on Goal
7
11
Corner Kicks
5
9
Fouls
13
0
Yellow Cards
1
0
Red Cards
0
1
Offsides
0
6
Goalkeeper Saves
7
Starting Lineups
Real Madrid (4-2-3-1)
T. Courtois
D. Dumfries
I. Konaté
A. Rüdiger
Álvaro Fernández
F. Valverde
Bernardo Silva
Y. Diomande
J. Bellingham
Vinícius Júnior
Kylian Mbappé
Vallecano (4-2-3-1)
E. Audero
A. Rațiu
F. Lejeune
P. Ciss
Adrià Pedrosa
G. Bouare
Unai López
G. Tsitaishvili
Pedro Díaz
Álvaro García
Sergio Camello
Player Ratings ?
Real Madrid
Kylian MbappéF9.0
T. CourtoisG8.3
J. BellinghamM8.2
Vallecano
Sergio CamelloF8.2
Pedro DíazM6.7
E. AuderoG6.6
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Data favours
Real Madrid
Real Madrid rate stronger across every major category. They lead recent form, attack, defence and head-to-head, giving Real Madrid a slight edge.
Leads 4 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Real Madrid stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Real Madrid stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Real Madrid stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Real Madrid stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Real Madrid arrive at home with a perfect record from their last five outings, securing all five victories, while Vallecano have recorded two wins, one draw and two defeats in the same span of matches away from home. At this venue, Real Madrid have scored in each of their last five matches but have also kept two clean sheets within that identical sample. Real Madrid rate stronger on form, attack, defence and head-to-head. Real Madrid won the most recent meeting 2-1 on 1 February 2026, having won 2 of the last 5 encounters to Vallecano's 0, with 3 ending level; the fixture has averaged 2.8 goals per meeting. The market has remained broadly steady over the 8-day comparison window, with little change in either side's implied win probability. The overall statistical comparison gives Real Madrid a slight edge.
Advertisement
Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Notable shift towards Real Madrid
Real Madrid's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Real Madrid win as more likely than it did 8 days ago.
Movement strength: Notable
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Real Madrid win
Latest market chance 85.6%
Notable shortening
Market chance increased
83.6% → 85.6%
+2.0 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 9.9%
Slight drift
Market chance decreased
11.0% → 9.9%
−1.1 pts
Vallecano win
Latest market chance 4.4%
Slight drift
Market chance decreased
5.4% → 4.4%
−1.0 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Real Madrid
Draw
Vallecano
5 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 8 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
Real MadridVallecano
Season Profile
This season
4th
League Position
14th
4
Games Played
4
2.25
Points/Game
1.00
2.50
Goals/Game
1.75
0.75
Conceded/Game
2.50
18.9
Shots/Game
13.4
7.6
Shots on Target
4.6
Home vs Away Context
Real Madrid at home (3 matches) vs Vallecano away (4 matches)
3.00
Points/Game
0.25
4.00
Goals/Game
1.25
0.67
Conceded/Game
3.00
100%
Win Rate
0%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Real Madrid
Home form
W
W
W
W
W
Won 5 straight at home
3 of these matches from last season.
3.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Vallecano
Away form
W
D
W
L
L
2W 1D 2L in last 5 away
3 of these matches from last season.
1.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Real Madrid Wins
2
Draws
3
Vallecano Wins
0
Avg Goals
2.8
Real Madrid2 – 1Vallecano
Vallecano0 – 0Real Madrid
Real Madrid2 – 1Vallecano
Vallecano3 – 3Real Madrid
Vallecano1 – 1Real Madrid
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Real Madridvs
Vallecano
Recent Scoring Profile
2.00
Goals scored / game
1.80
0.80
Goals conceded / game
1.60
4/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
5/10
4/10
Both Teams Scored
8/10
2/10
Failed to Score
0/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 71.7%→Latest 74.3%+2.6 pts
Notable move towards 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
The market is pricing a higher chance of 3+ goals than either team's recent rate.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 46.3%→Latest 47.6%+1.3 pts
Slight move towards both teams scoring
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
6 of Real Madrid's 10 matches and 6 of Vallecano's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?