Santander vs Alaves Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Estadio El Sardinero
Sat 12 Sep 2026 · 13:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.46
Draw
3.57
Away Win
2.89
Match Report
Full Time
2 – 1
Match Events ?
Santander
Alaves
7'
🟨 Nahuel Tenaglia
8'
🟨 Pablo Ibanez Lumbreras
18'
⚽ Ville Koski
Yassir Zabiri 🟨
35'
Yassir Zabiri (Iñigo Vicente) ⚽
38'
Yassir Zabiri (Jorge Salinas Viadero) ⚽
53'
62'
🟨 Antonio Blanco
Jorge Salinas Viadero 🟨
62'
André Almeida 🟥
89'
Match Statistics ?
57%
Ball Possession
43%
11
Total Shots
16
4
Shots on Goal
8
4
Corner Kicks
6
16
Fouls
17
2
Yellow Cards
3
1
Red Cards
0
2
Offsides
9
7
Goalkeeper Saves
2
Starting Lineups
Santander (4-2-3-1)
Julen Agirrezabala
Álvaro Mantilla
Pablo Ramón
J. Belocian
Jorge Salinas
Iván Martín
M. Prati
Pablo García
Sergio Canales
Iñigo Vicente
M. Zabiri
Alaves (3-5-2)
Sivera
N. Tenaglia
V. Koski
Jonny
Angel Pérez
Pablo Ibáñez
Antonio Blanco
Denis Suárez
A. Rebbach
L. Boyé
M. Díaz
Player Ratings ?
Santander
M. ZabiriF9.0
Julen AgirrezabalaG8.8
Iñigo VicenteM7.1
Alaves
JonnyD7.1
V. KoskiD6.9
A. RebbachM6.6
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Data favours
Alaves
Alaves rate stronger across every major category. They lead recent form, attack, defence and head-to-head, giving Alaves an edge.
Leads 4 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Alaves stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Alaves slightly stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Alaves stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Alaves stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Alaves have managed just one win from their last five away fixtures, while Santander have suffered three defeats in their corresponding home outings. Santander have found the net in three of their last five home matches, yet they have failed to keep a clean sheet during that same recent period. Alaves rate stronger on form, defence and head-to-head, with a slight advantage in attack. Alaves won the most recent meeting 3-0 on 21 January 2023, having won 2 of the last 5 encounters to Santander's 0, with 3 ending level; the fixture has averaged 2.8 goals per meeting. Over the 11-day comparison window, Santander's implied win probability has risen by 1.7 percentage points, while Alaves's implied win probability has fallen by 1.0 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison favours Alaves.
Advertisement
Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Slight shift towards Santander
Santander's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Santander win as more likely than it did 11 days ago. This is a modest move, not a major change in market opinion.
Movement strength: Slight
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Santander win
Latest market chance 38.7%
Slight shortening
Market chance increased
37.7% → 38.7%
+1.0 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 27.3%
Steady
Market view unchanged
27.6% → 27.3%
−0.3 pts
Alaves win
Latest market chance 34.0%
Steady
Market view unchanged
34.7% → 34.0%
−0.7 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Santander
Draw
Alaves
8 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 11 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
SantanderAlaves
Season Profile
This season
13th
League Position
2nd
4
Games Played
4
1.00
Points/Game
2.50
1.75
Goals/Game
2.50
2.00
Conceded/Game
0.75
10.3
Shots/Game
12.4
4.0
Shots on Target
4.4
Home vs Away Context
Santander at home (3 matches) vs Alaves away (3 matches)
2.33
Points/Game
0.67
2.33
Goals/Game
0.67
1.67
Conceded/Game
1.00
67%
Win Rate
0%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Santander
Home form
L
L
L
D
W
Lost 3 of last 5 at home
3 of these matches from last season.
1.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Alaves
Away form
D
L
D
W
D
1W 3D 1L in last 5 away
4 of these matches from last season.
1.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Santander Wins
0
Draws
3
Alaves Wins
2
Avg Goals
2.8
Alaves3 – 0Santander
Santander1 – 1Alaves
Alaves2 – 1Santander
Santander1 – 1Alaves
Alaves2 – 2Santander
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Santandervs
Alaves
Recent Scoring Profile
1.20
Goals scored / game
1.80
2.00
Goals conceded / game
1.10
6/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
5/10
7/10
Both Teams Scored
6/10
3/10
Failed to Score
0/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 51.0%→Latest 54.9%+3.9 pts
Strong move towards 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 56.0%→Latest 59.1%+3.1 pts
Strong move towards both teams scoring
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
6 of Santander's 10 matches and 6 of Alaves's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?