Burton vs AFC Wimbledon Head to Head, Prediction
Pirelli Stadium
Wed 02 Sep 2026 · 19:45 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.02
Draw
3.37
Away Win
3.95
Match Report
Full Time
4 – 1
Match Events ?
Burton
AFC Wimbledon
18'
⚽ Jayden Stockley (James Tilley)
George Evans ⚽
28'
Alistair Smith ⚽ (OG)
34'
Charlie Webster (Kyran Lofthouse) ⚽
46'
72'
🟨 Andy Yiadom
Caylon Vickers (Sulyman Krubally) ⚽
76'
Jack Armer 🟨
83'
Match Statistics ?
35%
Ball Possession
65%
10
Total Shots
19
5
Shots on Goal
4
4
Corner Kicks
7
8
Fouls
14
1
Yellow Cards
1
0
Red Cards
0
1
Offsides
3
2
Goalkeeper Saves
2
Starting Lineups
Burton (3-4-2-1)
C. Addai
T. Sibbick
G. Evans
F. Delap
K. Lofthouse
Sulyman Krubally
K. Chauke
J. Armer
W. Collar
C. Webster
Caylon Vickers
AFC Wimbledon (3-5-2)
J. McDonnell
A. Yiadom
D. Sweeney
R. Johnson
J. Tilley
Z. Nelson
A. Smith
M. Hippolyte
S. Seddon
Donnell McNeilly
J. Stockley
Player Ratings ?
Burton
Caylon VickersNone7.9
C. WebsterM7.9
G. EvansD7.5
AFC Wimbledon
J. StockleyF8.2
J. TilleyM7.6
Donnell McNeillyF6.7
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Data favours
Burton
Burton rate stronger across every major category. They lead recent form, attack, defence and head-to-head, giving Burton an edge.
Leads 4 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Burton stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Burton stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Burton stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Burton stronger
HomeAway
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Slight shift away from AFC Wimbledon
AFC Wimbledon's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a AFC Wimbledon win as less likely than it did 3 days ago. This is a modest move, not a major change in market opinion. Burton remain the clear market favourite.
Movement strength: Slight
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Burton win
Latest market chance 47.0%
Steady
Market view unchanged
46.5% → 47.0%
+0.5 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 28.4%
Steady
Market view unchanged
27.7% → 28.4%
+0.7 pts
AFC Wimbledon win
Latest market chance 24.7%
Slight drift
Market chance decreased
25.8% → 24.7%
−1.1 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Burton
Draw
AFC Wimbledon
9 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 3 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
BurtonAFC Wimbledon
Season Profile
This season
12th
League Position
16th
3
Games Played
3
1.33
Points/Game
1.33
1.33
Goals/Game
0.33
1.33
Conceded/Game
1.00
9.0
Shots/Game
10.5
3.0
Shots on Target
2.6
Home vs Away Context
Burton at home (5 matches) vs AFC Wimbledon away (4 matches)
1.20
Points/Game
1.00
2.00
Goals/Game
1.00
1.80
Conceded/Game
2.00
20%
Win Rate
25%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Burton
Home form
W
D
W
D
D
Unbeaten in last 5 at home
4 of these matches from last season.
1.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
AFC Wimbledon
Away form
L
L
L
W
L
Lost 4 of last 5 away
4 of these matches from last season.
0.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
1/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Burton Wins
3
Draws
2
AFC Wimbledon Wins
0
Avg Goals
1.4
Burton1 – 0AFC Wimbledon
AFC Wimbledon0 – 1Burton
Burton1 – 1AFC Wimbledon
AFC Wimbledon1 – 1Burton
AFC Wimbledon0 – 1Burton
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Burtonvs
AFC Wimbledon
Recent Scoring Profile
1.00
Goals scored / game
0.30
1.00
Goals conceded / game
1.70
3/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
4/10
7/10
Both Teams Scored
1/10
2/10
Failed to Score
7/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 10 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 48.7%→Latest 45.9%−2.8 pts
Notable move away from 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
The market is pricing a higher chance of 3+ goals than either team's recent rate.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 53.3%→Latest 50.5%−2.8 pts
Notable move away from both teams scoring
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
7 of Burton's 10 matches and 7 of AFC Wimbledon's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?