Burton vs Mansfield Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Pirelli Stadium
Sat 19 Sep 2026 · 12:30 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.44
Draw
3.43
Away Win
2.91
Match Report
Full Time
2 – 2
Match Events ?
Burton
Mansfield
Adedeji Oshilaja ⚽ (OG)
16'
21'
🟨 Elliott Hewitt
23'
🟨 Ryan Sweeney
Jack Armer (Caylon Vickers) ⚽
28'
Will Collar 🟨
39'
40'
⚽ Michael Smith (Nathan Daniel Moriah-Welsh)
49'
🟨 Louis Reed
59'
🟨 Michael Smith
70'
⚽ Lucas Akins
90+3'
🟨 Frazer Blake-Tracy
Match Statistics ?
51%
Ball Possession
49%
10
Total Shots
12
3
Shots on Goal
5
4
Corner Kicks
5
12
Fouls
14
1
Yellow Cards
5
0
Red Cards
0
1
Offsides
5
3
Goalkeeper Saves
2
Starting Lineups
Burton (3-4-2-1)
C. Addai
T. Sibbick
C. Tilt
Harvey Araujo
K. Lofthouse
K. Chauke
W. Collar
J. Armer
R. Borges Rodrigues
C. Webster
Caylon Vickers
Mansfield (3-1-4-2)
L. Roberts
E. Hewitt
A. Oshilaja
R. Sweeney
L. Reed
N. Moriah-Welsh
L. Thompson
R. Hendry
S. McLaughlin
M. Smith
D. McGoldrick
Player Ratings ?
Burton
Caylon VickersNone7.1
J. ArmerM6.8
M. DennisF6.7
Mansfield
L. AkinsF8.2
M. SmithF7.6
R. OatesF6.6
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Burton edge attack, defence and head-to-head, Mansfield edge recent form, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Mansfield slightly stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Burton slightly stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Burton stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Burton stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Mansfield have recorded just one win and drawn once in their last five away outings, whereas Burton remain unbeaten at home with two victories and three draws from the same number of fixtures. Burton have found the net in all five of their recent home matches but have only kept a single clean sheet during that identical span. Mansfield hold a slight advantage in form, while Burton rate stronger on defence and head-to-head, with a slight advantage in attack. The most recent meeting, on 6 April 2026, ended level, with 3 of the last 5 encounters drawn overall; the fixture has averaged 2.8 goals per meeting. Over the 3-day comparison window, Burton's implied win probability has risen by 2.5 percentage points, while Mansfield's implied win probability has fallen by 2.6 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Notable shift away from Mansfield
Mansfield's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Mansfield win as less likely than it did 3 days ago. Burton remain the clear market favourite.
Movement strength: Notable
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Burton win
Latest market chance 39.3%
Notable shortening
Market chance increased
36.8% → 39.3%
+2.5 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 27.9%
Steady
Market view unchanged
28.0% → 27.9%
−0.1 pts
Mansfield win
Latest market chance 32.7%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
35.3% → 32.7%
−2.6 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Burton
Draw
Mansfield
9 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 3 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
BurtonMansfield
Season Profile
This season
11th
League Position
17th
6
Games Played
6
1.33
Points/Game
1.17
1.67
Goals/Game
1.33
1.67
Conceded/Game
1.83
9.0
Shots/Game
12.7
3.0
Shots on Target
3.9
Home vs Away Context
Burton at home (5 matches) vs Mansfield away (4 matches)
1.20
Points/Game
0.25
2.00
Goals/Game
0.75
1.80
Conceded/Game
2.50
20%
Win Rate
0%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Burton
Home form
W
D
D
W
D
Unbeaten in last 5 at home
2 of these matches from last season.
1.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Mansfield
Away form
W
D
L
L
L
Lost 3 straight away
2 of these matches from last season.
1.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
2/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Burton Wins
2
Draws
3
Mansfield Wins
0
Avg Goals
2.8
Mansfield0 – 0Burton
Burton2 – 1Mansfield
Burton1 – 1Mansfield
Mansfield3 – 3Burton
Burton2 – 1Mansfield
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Burtonvs
Mansfield
Recent Scoring Profile
1.50
Goals scored / game
1.80
1.40
Goals conceded / game
1.60
6/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
6/10
8/10
Both Teams Scored
5/10
1/10
Failed to Score
4/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 50.8%→Latest 50.6%−0.2 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
The market is more cautious on 3+ goals than both teams' recent records.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 56.0%→Latest 55.7%−0.3 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
4 of Burton's 10 matches and 4 of Mansfield's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?