Doncaster vs Burton Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Eco-Power Stadium
Sat 10 Oct 2026 · 15:00 UK
Latest Odds
Home Win
1.67
Draw
4.30
Away Win
4.36
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Doncaster edge defence and head-to-head, Burton edge recent form, attack is closely matched, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Burton stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Closely matched
HomeAway
Defence
Doncaster slightly stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Doncaster stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Burton have secured two wins from their last five away outings, while Doncaster remain winless at home in that same span with three draws and two defeats. Doncaster have found the net in three of their last five matches at home but have only kept one clean sheet during that period. Burton rate stronger on form, while Doncaster rate stronger on head-to-head, with a slight advantage in defence, while attack is closely matched. Doncaster won the most recent meeting 2-1 on 3 February 2026, having won 2 of the last 5 encounters to Burton's 2, with 1 ending level; the fixture has averaged 2.4 goals per meeting. Over the 13-day comparison window, Doncaster's implied win probability has risen by 4.3 percentage points, while Burton's implied win probability has fallen by 1.9 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
50%
Doncaster yellow cards after 75'
3
Doncaster points from last 5 matches
Team Availability
Doncaster
No current absences reported
Burton
No current absences reported
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift towards Doncaster
Doncaster's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Doncaster win as more likely than it did 13 days ago.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Doncaster win
Latest market chance 55.6%
Strong shortening
Market chance increased
51.3% → 55.6%
+4.3 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 24.0%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
26.4% → 24.0%
−2.4 pts
Burton win
Latest market chance 20.4%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
22.3% → 20.4%
−1.9 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Doncaster
Draw
Burton
6 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 13 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
DoncasterBurton
Season Profile
This season
21st
League Position
8th
7
Games Played
9
0.86
Points/Game
1.33
1.14
Goals/Game
1.56
1.29
Conceded/Game
1.67
13.6
Shots/Game
9.0
4.1
Shots on Target
3.0
Home vs Away Context
Doncaster at home (3 matches) vs Burton away (4 matches)
0.67
Points/Game
1.50
1.00
Goals/Game
1.00
1.33
Conceded/Game
1.50
0%
Win Rate
50%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Doncaster
Home form
L
D
D
D
L
Winless in last 5 at home
2 of these matches from last season.
0.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Burton
Away form
D
W
L
L
W
2W 1D 2L in last 5 away
1 of these match from last season.
1.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Doncaster Wins
2
Draws
1
Burton Wins
2
Avg Goals
2.4
Burton1 – 2Doncaster
Doncaster1 – 1Burton
Doncaster2 – 0Burton
Burton2 – 0Doncaster
Doncaster0 – 3Burton
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Doncastervs
Burton
Recent Scoring Profile
1.20
Goals scored / game
1.60
1.30
Goals conceded / game
1.70
4/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
8/10
6/10
Both Teams Scored
8/10
3/10
Failed to Score
1/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 52.6%→Latest 53.3%+0.7 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 54.7%→Latest 53.6%−1.1 pts
Slight move away from both teams scoring
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
The market is more cautious on both teams scoring than both teams' recent records.
3 of Doncaster's 10 matches and 1 of Burton's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?