Oxford vs Burton Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Kassam Stadium
Sat 12 Sep 2026 · 15:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
1.88
Draw
3.82
Away Win
3.96
Match Report
Full Time
3 – 0
Match Events ?
Oxford
Burton
23'
🟨 Joe Cameron Lewis
Jamie McDonnell 🟨
38'
Siriki Dembele ⚽
76'
Louie Sibley (Siriki Dembele) ⚽
90'
Gatlin O Donkor (Tyler Goodrham) ⚽
90+4'
Match Statistics ?
65%
Ball Possession
35%
11
Total Shots
9
5
Shots on Goal
2
2
Corner Kicks
5
14
Fouls
16
1
Yellow Cards
1
0
Red Cards
0
0
Offsides
1
2
Goalkeeper Saves
2
Starting Lineups
Oxford (4-2-3-1)
S. Eastwood
P. Kioso
M. Helik
C. Brown
B. Spencer
Jamie Carson McDonnell
C. Brannagan
M. Missanga
Kai Andrews
S. Dembélé
M. Harris
Burton (3-4-2-1)
C. Addai
T. Sibbick
J. Lewis
C. Tilt
K. Lofthouse
W. Collar
K. Chauke
J. Armer
Caylon Vickers
C. Webster
R. Borges Rodrigues
Player Ratings ?
Oxford
S. DembéléM7.8
G. O'DonkorF7.4
L. SibleyM7.3
Burton
R. Borges RodriguesF6.4
Kain AdomNone6.3
K. ChaukeM6.3
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Data favours
Oxford
Oxford rate stronger across every major category. They lead recent form, attack, defence and head-to-head, giving Oxford a slight edge.
Leads 4 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Oxford stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Oxford stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Oxford slightly stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Oxford stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Oxford come into this League One fixture with two wins and two draws from their last five home outings, while Burton have secured just a solitary victory in that same span away from home. At the ground, Oxford have scored in four of their last five matches but have also kept two clean sheets within that identical recent sample. Oxford rate stronger on form, attack and head-to-head, with a slight advantage in defence. Oxford won the most recent meeting 4-0 on 6 April 2024, having won 4 of the last 5 encounters to Burton's 1, with 0 ending level; the fixture has averaged 3.4 goals per meeting. The market has remained broadly steady over the 5-day comparison window, with little change in either side's implied win probability. The overall statistical comparison gives Oxford a slight edge.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Little change in the market
The betting market's view of this match has barely moved since the earliest comparable snapshot, 5 days before kickoff.
Movement strength: Steady
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Oxford win
Latest market chance 50.5%
Steady
Market view unchanged
49.9% → 50.5%
+0.6 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 26.2%
Steady
Market view unchanged
26.8% → 26.2%
−0.6 pts
Burton win
Latest market chance 23.3%
Steady
Market view unchanged
23.3% → 23.3%
±0.0 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Oxford
Draw
Burton
9 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 5 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
OxfordBurton
Season Profile
This season
11th
League Position
6th
4
Games Played
5
1.75
Points/Game
1.60
2.25
Goals/Game
2.00
1.50
Conceded/Game
1.40
11.2
Shots/Game
9.0
4.5
Shots on Target
3.0
Home vs Away Context
Oxford at home (3 matches) vs Burton away (4 matches)
1.67
Points/Game
1.50
2.00
Goals/Game
1.00
1.00
Conceded/Game
1.50
33%
Win Rate
50%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Oxford
Home form
W
W
L
D
D
2W 2D 1L in last 5 at home
4 of these matches from last season.
2.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Burton
Away form
D
D
D
W
L
1W 3D 1L in last 5 away
3 of these matches from last season.
1.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Oxford Wins
4
Draws
0
Burton Wins
1
Avg Goals
3.4
Burton0 – 4Oxford
Oxford3 – 0Burton
Burton2 – 0Oxford
Oxford2 – 1Burton
Oxford4 – 1Burton
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Oxfordvs
Burton
Recent Scoring Profile
2.50
Goals scored / game
1.50
0.90
Goals conceded / game
1.10
8/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
5/10
5/10
Both Teams Scored
8/10
1/10
Failed to Score
1/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 49.3%→Latest 51.3%+2.0 pts
Notable move towards 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 52.0%→Latest 53.9%+1.9 pts
Notable move towards both teams scoring
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
6 of Oxford's 10 matches and 5 of Burton's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?