Plymouth vs AFC Wimbledon Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Home Park
Sat 10 Oct 2026 · 12:30 UK
Latest Odds
Home Win
1.52
Draw
4.35
Away Win
5.71
Match Prediction
Data favours
Plymouth
Plymouth rate stronger across every major category. They lead recent form, attack, defence and head-to-head, giving Plymouth a slight edge.
Leads 4 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Plymouth stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Plymouth stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Plymouth slightly stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Plymouth stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Plymouth have secured three victories from their last five home outings, while AFC Wimbledon manage just two wins in the same number of away fixtures. The Pilgrims have found the net in four of their last five home matches but have also kept two clean sheets during that identical recent sample. Plymouth rate stronger on form, attack and head-to-head, with a slight advantage in defence. Plymouth won the most recent meeting 3-1 on 18 April 2026, having won 4 of the last 5 encounters to AFC Wimbledon's 1, with 0 ending level; the fixture has averaged 2.2 goals per meeting. The market has remained broadly steady over the 13-day comparison window, with little change in either side's implied win probability. The overall statistical comparison gives Plymouth a slight edge.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
3/5
One-goal H2H results
57%
Plymouth yellow cards after 75'
Team Availability
Plymouth
No current absences reported
AFC Wimbledon
No current absences reported
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Little change in the market
The betting market's view of this match has barely moved since the earliest comparable snapshot, 13 days before kickoff.
Movement strength: Steady
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Plymouth win
Latest market chance 62.4%
Steady
Market view unchanged
62.9% → 62.4%
−0.5 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 21.8%
Steady
Market view unchanged
21.8% → 21.8%
±0.0 pts
AFC Wimbledon win
Latest market chance 15.8%
Steady
Market view unchanged
15.3% → 15.8%
+0.5 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Plymouth
Draw
AFC Wimbledon
5 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 13 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
PlymouthAFC Wimbledon
Season Profile
This season
1st
League Position
9th
9
Games Played
8
1.78
Points/Game
1.50
1.78
Goals/Game
0.75
1.22
Conceded/Game
1.00
15.0
Shots/Game
10.5
5.1
Shots on Target
2.6
Home vs Away Context
Plymouth at home (4 matches) vs AFC Wimbledon away (4 matches)
1.50
Points/Game
1.00
1.50
Goals/Game
1.00
1.00
Conceded/Game
2.00
50%
Win Rate
25%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Plymouth
Home form
W
L
W
W
L
Won 3 of last 5 at home
1 of these match from last season.
1.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
AFC Wimbledon
Away form
W
L
L
W
D
2W 1D 2L in last 5 away
1 of these match from last season.
1.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Plymouth Wins
4
Draws
0
AFC Wimbledon Wins
1
Avg Goals
2.2
AFC Wimbledon1 – 3Plymouth
Plymouth1 – 2AFC Wimbledon
Plymouth2 – 0AFC Wimbledon
AFC Wimbledon0 – 1Plymouth
Plymouth1 – 0AFC Wimbledon
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Plymouthvs
AFC Wimbledon
Recent Scoring Profile
1.90
Goals scored / game
0.70
1.30
Goals conceded / game
1.20
5/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
3/10
5/10
Both Teams Scored
2/10
2/10
Failed to Score
4/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 57.9%→Latest 57.4%−0.5 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
The market is pricing a higher chance of 3+ goals than either team's recent rate.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 53.2%→Latest 53.3%+0.1 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
1 of Plymouth's 10 matches and 2 of AFC Wimbledon's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?