Plymouth vs Barnsley Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis

Archived Result — stats and prediction shown as they stood before kickoff
Home Park
Sat 12 Sep 2026 · 15:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
1.67
Draw
4.29
Away Win
4.64
Match Report
Full Time
3 – 0
Match Events ?
Plymouth
Barnsley
Oliver Irow (Julio Pleguezuelo) ⚽
1'
9'
🟨 S. Gale
Ronan Curtis ⚽
21'
Aribim Pepple (Harvey White) ⚽
50'
Mathias Ross Jensen 🟨
76'
Will Evans 🟨
80'
90'
🟨 Tyrese Noslin
Match Statistics ?
37%
Ball Possession
63%
7
Total Shots
15
4
Shots on Goal
0
4
Corner Kicks
8
13
Fouls
12
2
Yellow Cards
2
0
Red Cards
0
7
Offsides
5
0
Goalkeeper Saves
1
Starting Lineups
Plymouth (4-4-2)
M. Mahoney
W. Harding
Julio Pleguezuelo
A. Mitchell
M. Sorinola
R. Curtis
T. Bakinson
H. White
O. Irow
W. Evans
A. Pepple
Barnsley (4-2-3-1)
Rogan Ravenhill
T. Noslin
C. O'Riordan
S. Gale
A. Kay
Jonathan Bland
C. McGeehan
L. Alker
Patrick Kelly
R. Cleary
M. Kirk
Player Ratings ?
Plymouth
A. PeppleF8.1
H. WhiteM7.7
O. IrowM7.7
Barnsley
B. TouréF6.7
C. McGeehanM6.6
L. ConnellM6.5
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Plymouth edge recent form and attack, Barnsley edge head-to-head, defence is closely matched, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Plymouth stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Plymouth stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Closely matched
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Barnsley slightly stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Plymouth have secured two victories from their last five home outings, while Barnsley have managed just two wins in their corresponding away sample. The Pilgrims have found the net in every one of their last five matches at home, yet they have conceded in four of those same fixtures, managing only a solitary clean sheet during that period. Plymouth rate stronger on form and attack, while Barnsley hold a slight advantage in head-to-head, while defence is closely matched. Plymouth won the most recent meeting 3-0 on 6 April 2026, having won 2 of the last 5 encounters to Barnsley's 3, with 0 ending level; the fixture has averaged 2.8 goals per meeting. The market has remained broadly steady over the 5-day comparison window, with little change in either side's implied win probability. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
Advertisement
Market View
?
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Little change in the market
The betting market's view of this match has barely moved since the earliest comparable snapshot, 5 days before kickoff.
Movement strength: Steady
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Plymouth win
Latest market chance 56.6%
Steady
Market view unchanged
56.1% → 56.6%
+0.5 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 22.8%
Steady
Market view unchanged
23.3% → 22.8%
−0.5 pts
Barnsley win
Latest market chance 20.6%
Steady
Market view unchanged
20.6% → 20.6%
±0.0 pts
Movement over time
Change vs first comparable snapshot
6 snapshots
+1+0.50−0.5Sep 7Sep 8Sep 9Sep 10Sep 11Sep 12
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Plymouth
Draw
Barnsley
9 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 5 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
Plymouth
Barnsley
Season Profile
This season
14th
League Position
15th
5
Games Played
5
1.40
Points/Game
1.40
1.40
Goals/Game
1.20
1.60
Conceded/Game
1.60
15.0
Shots/Game
17.0
5.1
Shots on Target
4.4
Home vs Away Context
Plymouth at home (4 matches) vs Barnsley away (3 matches)
1.50
Points/Game
1.33
1.50
Goals/Game
1.00
1.00
Conceded/Game
1.33
50%
Win Rate
33%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Plymouth
Home form
L
D
W
L
W
2W 1D 2L in last 5 at home
3 of these matches from last season.
1.6
Goals scored
per match
1.6
Goals conceded
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
VS
Barnsley
Away form
L
L
W
D
W
2W 1D 2L in last 5 away
3 of these matches from last season.
1.0
Goals scored
per match
0.8
Goals conceded
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Plymouth Wins
2
Draws
0
Barnsley Wins
3
Avg Goals
2.8
2026-04-062025-2026
Barnsley0 – 3Plymouth
2025-08-022025-2026
Plymouth1 – 3Barnsley
2023-03-112022-2023
Barnsley3 – 0Plymouth
2022-07-302022-2023
Plymouth1 – 0Barnsley
2019-04-222018-2019
Plymouth0 – 3Barnsley
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Plymouth
vs
Barnsley
Recent Scoring Profile
1.80
Goals scored / game
1.10
1.50
Goals conceded / game
1.60
6/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
6/10
8/10
Both Teams Scored
6/10
1/10
Failed to Score
3/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
82.8%
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
62.5%
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
42.2%
BTTSBoth teams score
60.9%
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 61.3%→Latest 62.5%+1.2 pts
Slight move towards 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Sep 7Sep 8Sep 9Sep 10Sep 11Sep 12
8 common bookmakers · first comparable 5 days before kickoff
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 59.7%→Latest 60.9%+1.2 pts
Slight move towards both teams scoring
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Sep 7Sep 8Sep 9Sep 10Sep 11Sep 12
7 common bookmakers · first comparable 5 days before kickoff
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
5 of Plymouth's 10 matches and 5 of Barnsley's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?
Loading poll…