Stevenage vs Luton Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
SPORTA Arena
Thu 10 Sep 2026 · 20:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
3.07
Draw
3.57
Away Win
2.28
Match Report
Full Time
2 – 1
Match Events ?
Stevenage
Luton
Daniel Phillips 🟨
4'
Daniel Kemp ⚽
23'
24'
🟥 Jack Wilshere
Lewis Freestone 🟨
26'
30'
🟨 Liam Walsh
Daniel Kemp 🟨
44'
Josh Magennis ⚽
70'
75'
⚽ Mads Juel Andersen (Kasey Palmer)
Saxon Earley 🟨
80'
Luther Wildin 🟨
90+3'
90+5'
🟨 Mads Juel Andersen
Match Statistics ?
29%
Ball Possession
71%
9
Total Shots
10
3
Shots on Goal
2
2
Corner Kicks
4
15
Fouls
10
5
Yellow Cards
2
0
Red Cards
0
1
Offsides
0
1
Goalkeeper Saves
1
Starting Lineups
Stevenage (4-4-1-1)
T. Setford
L. James-Wildin
T. Vancooten
C. Piergianni
L. Freestone
O. Sanderson
D. Phillips
L. Thompson
J. Roberts
D. Kemp
J. Magennis
Luton (4-1-4-1)
Joshua Keeley
H. Odoffin
M. Andersen
G. Johnston
J. Johnson
L. Walsh
I. Jones
J. Donley
Daniel Gore
G. Kodua
C. Marshall
Player Ratings ?
Stevenage
J. MagennisF7.7
D. KempM7.4
C. PiergianniD7.0
Luton
M. AndersenD7.5
L. WalshM7.2
K. PalmerM6.7
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Stevenage edge defence, Luton edge recent form, attack and head-to-head, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Luton stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Luton stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Stevenage stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Luton stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Luton have secured three wins from their last five away outings, while Stevenage have recorded two victories in that same span at home. Stevenage have found the net in four of their last five home matches but have also kept two clean sheets during that period. Luton rate stronger on form, attack and head-to-head, while Stevenage rate stronger on defence. Luton won the most recent meeting 2-1 on 10 January 2026, having won 2 of the last 5 encounters to Stevenage's 2, with 1 ending level; the fixture has averaged 3.4 goals per meeting. The market has remained broadly steady over the 3-day comparison window, with little change in either side's implied win probability. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Little change in the market
The betting market's view of this match has barely moved since the earliest comparable snapshot, 3 days before kickoff.
Movement strength: Steady
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Stevenage win
Latest market chance 31.1%
Steady
Market view unchanged
30.7% → 31.1%
+0.4 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 27.4%
Steady
Market view unchanged
27.7% → 27.4%
−0.3 pts
Luton win
Latest market chance 41.5%
Steady
Market view unchanged
41.7% → 41.5%
−0.2 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Stevenage
Draw
Luton
12 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 3 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
StevenageLuton
Season Profile
This season
16th
League Position
7th
5
Games Played
5
1.20
Points/Game
1.60
1.80
Goals/Game
2.20
1.20
Conceded/Game
2.20
10.6
Shots/Game
13.3
3.9
Shots on Target
4.3
Home vs Away Context
Stevenage at home (3 matches) vs Luton away (3 matches)
1.33
Points/Game
1.00
1.67
Goals/Game
2.33
1.67
Conceded/Game
3.33
33%
Win Rate
33%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Stevenage
Home form
W
W
L
L
D
2W 1D 2L in last 5 at home
3 of these matches from last season.
1.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Luton
Away form
D
W
W
W
L
Won 3 of last 5 away
3 of these matches from last season.
2.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Stevenage Wins
2
Draws
1
Luton Wins
2
Avg Goals
3.4
Luton2 – 1Stevenage
Stevenage2 – 0Luton
Stevenage1 – 1Luton
Luton7 – 1Stevenage
Luton0 – 2Stevenage
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Stevenagevs
Luton
Recent Scoring Profile
1.20
Goals scored / game
2.20
1.00
Goals conceded / game
1.70
3/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
7/10
5/10
Both Teams Scored
8/10
3/10
Failed to Score
0/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 12 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 48.2%→Latest 49.7%+1.5 pts
Notable move towards 3+ goals
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 53.0%→Latest 54.7%+1.7 pts
Notable move towards both teams scoring
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
5 of Stevenage's 10 matches and 5 of Luton's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?